Co-Integration Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and CO 2 Emissions in the Countries of the East African Community

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions in East African Community (EAC) countries between 1992 and 2020, in response to climate commitments including the Paris Agreement. Using an ARDL model, the study captures the short- and long-term effects of variables specifically the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the energy consumption, and the industrialization. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship: CO 2 emissions increase with economic growth up to a certain threshold and then decrease beyond that income level. In the short term, an economic growth increases emissions in some countries but in the long term, it is positively correlated with increased emissions. This study highlights the need for sustainable policies that maintain suitable agricultural and industrial practices while enabling economic growth that matches well with climate goals.