Using MCMC Probit Model to Value Coastal Beach Quality Improvement
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Abstract
Dichotomous choice elicitation technique of contingent valuation method is broadly used in the research fields of environmental resource and recreational activity management. The binary choice type of questions are generally analyzed by using Logit or Probit probability distribution models in which a common analysis procedure is to apply MLE for estimating variable parameters before calculating the respondents’ willingness to pay. In this paper, a MCMC Gibbs sampling Probit model is adopted to maintain the three advantages it has in dealing with heteroscedasticity, high dimension numerical integral and sample size restriction problems. The results revealed that the MCMC model and MLE Probit model are strikingly consistent, which suggests that the former is much simple and reliable estimation method. At the same time, the empirically based existence value estimation of coastal beach quality improvement in Dalian, China is RMB?168 per person.
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