Integrated assessment models increasingly rely on biomass for energy with ever more stringent mitigation policies. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use. As discussed in the literature, crop bio-energy will lead to substantial pressure to increase deforestation. This paper consequently explores using woody biomass for bioenergy. The paper combines the IAM WITCH with a global dynamic forestry model GTM to determine the optimal size of the woody biomass market, the effects on the timber market, and the resulting forestland under two alternative mitigation strategies. This paper predicts that moving from a moderate to a stringent mitigation policy would increase the demand for woody biomass from 3.7 to 5.2 billion m 3 /yr, increasing forestland by 1049 to 1890 million ha, and shrinking farmland by 748 to 1550 million ha. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use.
KeywordsClimate ChangeForestryBECCSLand UseIntegrated Assessment Model
Clarke, L., et al. (2014) Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Larson, E. and Möllersten, K. (2006) Carbon Capture and Storage from Fossil Fuels and Biomass—Costs and Potential Role in Stabilizing the Atmosphere. Climatic Change, 74, 47-79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-3484-7
Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Obersteiner, M., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., den Elzen, K., Möllersten, K. and Larson, E.D. (2010) The Feasibility of Low CO2 Concentration Targets and the Role of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). Climatic Change, 100, 195-202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9832-7
Krey, V. and Riahi, K. (2009) Implications of Delayed Participation and Technology Failure for the Feasibility, Costs, and Likelihood of Staying Below Temperature Targets—Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios for the 21st Century. Energy Economics, 31, S94-S106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.07.001
Van Vuuren, D.P. and Riahi, P. (2011) The Relationship between Short-Term Emissions and Long-Term Concentration Targets. Climatic Change, 104, 793-801. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6
Van Vuuren, D.P., Deetman, S., van Vliet, J., van den Berg, M., van Ruijven, B.J. and Koel, B. (2013) The Role of Negative CO2 Emissions for Reaching 2°C—Insights from Integrated Assessment Modelling. Climatic Change, 118, 15-27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0680-5
Creutzig, F., Ravindranath, N., Berndes, G., et al. (2014) Bioenergy and Climate Change Mitigation: An Assessment. GCB Bioenergy, 7, 916-944. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12205
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S. and Hawthorne, P. (2008) Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt. Science, 319, 1235-1238. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152747
Melillo, J.M., Gurgel, A.C., Kicklighter, D.W., Reilly, J.M., Cronin, T.W., Felzer, B.S., Paltsev, S., Schlosser, A.C., Sokolov, A.P. and Wang, X. (2009) Unintended Environmental Consequences of a Global Biofuels Program. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
Searchinger, T.D, Hamburg, S.P., Melillo, J., Chameides, W., Havlik, P., Kammen, D.M., Likens, G.E., Lubowski, R.N., Obersteiner, M., Oppenheimer, M., Robertson, G.P., Schlesinger, W.H. and Tilman G.D. (2009) Fixing a Critical Climate Accounting Error. Science, 326, 527-528. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1178797
Wise, M., Calvin, K., Thomson, A., Clarke, L., Bond-Lamberty, B., Sands, R., Smith, S.J., Janetos, A. and Edmonds, J. (2009) Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy. Science, 324, 1183-1186. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1168475
Ince, P.J., Kramp, A.D. and Skog, K.E. (2012) Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 60, 211-237. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2012.01249.x
Ince, P.J., Kramp, A.D., Skog, K.E., Yoo, D. and Sample, V.A. (2011) Modelling Future US Forest Sector Market and Trade Impacts of Expansion in Wood Energy Consumption. Journal of Forest Economics, 17, 142-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.02.007
Daigneault, A.J., Sohngen, B. and Sedjo, R. (2012) An Economic Approach to Assess the Forest Carbon Implications of Biomass Energy. Environmental Science Technology, 46, 5664-5671. https://doi.org/10.1021/es2030142
Moiseyev, A., Solberg, B., Kallio, A.M.I. and Lindner, M. (2011) An Economic Analysis of the Potential Contribution of Forest Biomass to the EU RES Target and Its Implications for the EU Forest Industries. Journal of Forest Economics, 17, 197-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.02.010
Lauri, P., Kallio, A.M.I. and Schneider, U.A. (2012) Price of CO2 Emissions and Use of Wood in Europe. Forest Policy and Economics, 15, 123-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2011.10.003
Raunikar, R., Buongiorno, J., Turner, J.A. and Zhu, S. (2010) Global Outlook for Wood and Forests with the Bioenergy Demand Implied by Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Forest Policy and Economics, 12, 48-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2009.09.013
Buongiorno, J., Raunikar, R. and Zhu, S. (2011) Consequences of Increasing Bioenergy Demand on Wood and Forests: An Application of the Global Forest Products Model. Journal of Forest Economics, 17, 214-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.02.008
Gillingham, K., Smith, S. and Sands, R. (2008) Impact of Bioenergy Crops in a Carbon Dioxide Constrained World: An Application of the MiniCAM Energy-Agriculture and Land Use Model. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13, 675-701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9122-5
Popp, A., Dietrich, J.P., Lotze-Campen, H., Klein, D., Bauer, N., Krause, M., Beringer, T., Gerten, D. and Edenhofer, O. (2011) The Economic Potential of Bioenergy for Climate Change Mitigation with Special Attention Given to Implications for the Land System. Environmental Research Letters, 6, Article ID: 034017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034017
Sohngen, B., Mendelsohn, R. and Sedjo, R. (1999) Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.2307/1244446
Sohngen, B. and Sedjo, R. (2000) Potential Carbon Flux from Timber Harvests and Management in the Context of a Global Timber Market. Climatic Change, 44, 151-172. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005568825306
Sohngen, B. and Mendelsohn, R. (2003) An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85, 448-457. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00133
Bosetti, V., Carraro, C., Galeotti, M., Massetti, E. and Tavoni, M. (2006) A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model. The Energy Journal, 27, 13-38. https://doi.org/10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi2-2
Bosetti, V., De Cian, E., Sgobbi, A. and Tavoni, M. (2009) The 2008 Witch Model: New Model Features and Baseline. FEEM—Nota di Lavoro 2009.085.
Bosetti, V., Massetti, E. and Tavoni, M. (2007) The WITCH Model: Structure, Baseline, Solutions. FEEM Working Paper No. 10.2007. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.960746
Favero, A. and Mendelsohn, R. (2014) Using Markets for Woody Biomass Energy to Sequester Carbon in Forests. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 1, 75-95. https://doi.org/10.1086/676033
Tavoni, M., Sohngen, B. and Bosetti, V. (2007). Forestry and the Carbon Market Response to Stabilize Climate. Energy Policy, 35, 5346-5353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.036
Favero, A., Mendelsohn, R. and Sohngen, B. (2016) Carbon Storage and Bioenergy: Using Forests for Climate Mitigation. FEEM Working Paper No. 009.2016. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2741005
Favero, A. and Massetti, E. (2014) Trade of Woody Biomass for Electricity Generation under Climate Mitigation Policy. Resource and Energy Economics, 36, 166-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2013.11.005
Sedjo, R.A., Sohngen, B. and Riddle, A. (2015) Land Use Change, Carbon, and Bioenergy Reconsidered. Climate Change Economics, 6, Article ID: 1550002.
Luckow, P., Wise, M.A., Dooley, J.J. and Kim S.H. (2010) Large-Scale Utilization of Biomass Energy and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the Transport and Electricity Sectors Under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 4, 865-877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2010.06.002
Carraro, C., Favero, A. and Massetti, E. (2012) Investments and Public Finance in a Green, Low Carbon Economy. Energy Economics, 34, S15-S28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.036
Mendelsohn, R., Sedjo, R. and Sohngen, B. (2012) Forest Carbon Sequestration. In: Parry, I., de Mooij, R. and Keen, M., Eds., Fiscal Policy to Mitigate Climate Change: A Guide for Policymakers, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.
Calvin, K., Edmonds, J., Bond-Lamberty, B., Clarke, L., Kim, S.H., Kyle, P., Smith, S.J., Thomson, A. and Wise, M. (2009) Limiting Climate Change to 450 ppm CO2 Equivalent in the 21st Century. Energy Economics, 31, S107-S120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.006
Sohngen, B., Mendelsohn, R. and Sedjo, R. (2002) A Global Model of Climate Change Impacts on Timber Markets. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 26, 326-343.
Mendelsohn, R., Prentice, I., Schmitz, O., Stocker, B., Buchkowski, R. and Dawson, B. (2016) The Ecosystem Impacts of Severe Warming. American Economic Review Proceedings, 106, 612-614. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161104