External Quality Assurance of the Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link Business Case—Too Little, Too Late, and Too Unreliable

Abstract

The external quality assurance (EQA) of the Fehmarn Belt fixed link business case commissioned by the Danish Ministry of Transport is critically analyzed regarding the New Construction Budgeting requirements as well as common practical criteria. A time line of analyses, decisions and external quality assurance activities as well as external criticism is established as a basis for analyzing the completeness, timeliness and trustworthiness of the quality assurance. Information obtained per the Public Records Act is included. It is found that the external quality assurance was grossly incomplete with limited scopes and exclusion of major elements of the project. The overall financial performance and financial uncertainty analyses were not subject to external quality assurance at all. The bulk of external quality assurance was carried out only after the decision-to-build was made, preparatory construction activities initiated or major economic commitments made, thus jeopardizing the timeliness. The trustworthiness of the external quality assurance is limited for different reasons: bad timing of activities, lack of independence of consultancies, and controversial findings of opposing analyses. The external quality assurance is found to be too little, too late, and too unreliable. The status of the project as a high-risk business case is not improved by the external quality assurance.