Potential Map for the Installation of Concentrated Solar Power in Northeast of Brazil Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Abstract

Brazil has a predominantly renewable energy matrix, with large participation of water resource in domestic supply of energy. Data from 2019 National Energy Balance show that renewable sources (water, biomass, wind and solar photovoltaic) together represented 83% of domestic electric supply in 2018, where the remaining percentage (16.7%) represented non-renewable sources. The generation of electricity through thermal solar technology was not representative. However, it is known that Brazil presents high potential for the installation of solar thermal plants, especially in the Northeastern Region, where direct normal solar irradiation values are high. It is observed that the (high) costs of the projects associated to the absence of a specific incentive program make Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants installation more and more time consuming. As a way to contribute to the insertion of solar thermal energy in Brazil, this article presents a methodology for the location of parabolic trough solar thermal plants of 80 MW for the State of Bahia, located in the Northeastern Region of Brazil. Such methodology was based on the application the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Geoprocessing Technologies to define potentially available sites for the implementation of the projects. For the analysis, parameters related to energy production in the solar power plant, electric, roadways and water infrastructure of the plant were taken into account, as well as the occupation, slopes and land use. Considering the analyses performed, it was confirmed that Bahia disposes of many sites with great generation potential, especially in the western region of the State (at Barreiras), where favorable conditions were found for the development of the technology. Localities situated in other region of the State were also confirmed as suitable, however with less site availability for the insertion of plants. Methodology validations were also carried out and indicated that the model reached the proposed objective, faithfully representing the real-world simplifications that were made.