Spatial Modeling of Residential Crowding in Alexandria Governorate, Egypt: A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Technique

Abstract

Despite growing research for residential crowding effects on housing market and public health perspectives, relatively little attention has been paid to explore and model spatial patterns of residential crowding over space. This paper focuses upon analyzing the spatial relationships between residential crowding and socio-demographic variables in Alexandria neighborhoods, Egypt. Global and local geo-statistical techniques were employed within GIS-based platform to identify spatial variations of residential crowding determinates. The global ordinary least squares (OLS) model assumes homogeneity of relationships between response variable and explanatory variables across the study area. Consequently, it fails to account for heterogeneity of spatial relationships. Local model known as a geographically weighted regression (GWR) was also employed using the same response variable and explanatory variables to capture spatial non-stationary of residential crowding. A comparison of the outputs of both models indicated that OLS explained 74 percent of residential crowding variations while GWR model explained 79 percent. The GWR improvedstrength of the model and provided a better goodness of fit than OLS. In addition, the findings of this analysis revealed that residential crowding was significantly associated with different structural measures particularly social characteristics of household such as higher education and illiteracy. Similarly, population size of neighborhood and number of dwelling rooms were found to have direct impacts on residential crowding rate. The spatial relationship of these measures distinctly varies over the study area.