Dynamic Modelling of VFC from 2000 to 2010 Using NDVI and DMSP/OLS Time Series: A Study in Guangdong Province, China

Abstract

Forest cover change is considered one of the serious issues in the last several decades for the global environment. This scenario has mainly depended to ever-increasing socio-economic activities. The present article has revealed major changes of VFC in relation to human activities during the years of 2000 to 2010 in the Guangdong province of China. The data derived using the NDVIimages. The analysis covered the growing season which consisted of seven months (April to October) annually. VFC (Vegetation Fractional Cover) was successfully calculated from NDVI images and VFC levels were defined in four levels. Levels IV and I had the highest and lowest annual changes. Areas at risk of desertification and difference coverage were determined by Hot Spot and Cold Spot analyzing. Mean of total VFC was evaluated 0.783 and Moran’s I statistic calculated for years separately. Additionally, Light Index achieved of DMSP/OLS data annually. The results show that VFC and Light Index have an upward trend, which means that development of social economy leads to increasing awareness of the importance of environmental protection and sustainable development. Hereof, we witness seven-year increase of VFC during the eleven years. The correlation co-efficient shows that Light Index is suitable index for evaluating diving forces. Time series modeling confirms that there is strong inverse relationship between the VFC and Light Index in most cases. This means with increasing Light Index, VFC decreases. Finally, driving forces of VFC variation show that forest cover change scenario is more under the influence of the human activities.