GIS Integrated Spatio-Temporal Urban Growth Modelling: Colombo Urban Fringe, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Urban growth is a continuous spatial expansion, and happens as a spatial-temporal process. This physical process influenced by various driving factors on the sub-systems within the main urban system. Analysing this spatial-temporal process and the influencing factors behind it is a substantial and essential task as it facilitates the local planning process. Previous studies were concerned with the individual effect of each driver on the main urban system rather than with the interactions between the drivers in the different sub-systems. This research aims to model urban growth and to consider the effect of the driving factors separately on the socio-economic, physical and environmental sub-systems. GIS based logistic regression modelling is used to model the fringe growth to find out the relationship between urban growth and its driving factors. These findings highlighted the positive and negative influencing factors in terms of, “where the growth should go?” and “how much of it should go?”. The factors in the socio-economic, physical, and environmental sub-systems can exert their influence in a positive or negative manner. The cumulative results of the various influences caused a unique pattern of growth in the Colombo urban fringe that is quite distinct from the pattern witnessed in other Asian countries.