The Impact of Population Aging Trends on Mongolia’s Pension Insurance Fund

Abstract

In the last twelve years, Mongolian pension insurance fund recorded a total loss of 2.7 trillion MNT. Meanwhile, the labor force is expected to gradually decrease, while the number of pensioners, the average life expectancy of the population, and the lifespan of pensioners will continue to rise, increasing pressure on the budget. To address these challenges, it is essential to estimate the fund’s future income and expenses, evaluate long-term trends, expand the number of voluntary insured individuals, refine individual account information, and develop a methodology for determining income in the informal sector. The assessment of household income risks for informal sector workers and the current voluntary insurance premium rate remains insufficient. Therefore, to accurately calculate the population and income of the pension insurance fund, assess its risks, and address the challenges related to pension insurance, there is an urgent need to develop an optimal model based on scientific calculations and conduct a comprehensive analysis of insurance savings and fund assets. Implementing effective policy planning to reduce the pension insurance fund’s losses and align its income and expenses is crucial. This study aims to analyze population growth and aging trends in relation to the pension insurance fund’s income and expenditure balance, evaluate the current situation, identify future trends, and conduct experiments and simulations.