The Hydro-Political Economy of Jordanian Agriculture: Navigating Scarcity, Efficiency Paradoxes, and the Imperative of a Just Transition

Abstract

This study provides an integrated hydro-political economy diagnosis based on rigorous official data from the Jordan Valley Authority and the Ministry of Water and Irrigation spanning 2019-2024. Empirical evidence confirms three critical findings: 1) Structural Imbalance: Agricultural irrigation dominates the basin, consuming 45% (210 million cubic meters) of the 2023 baseline managed water budget (totaling 462 MCM), with subsequent analysis reflecting evolving pressures through Q3 2025. 2) Operational Challenges: Key reservoirs operate at critical operational deficits, exemplified by the combined 40.1% storage efficiency for the five core dams. 3) Efficiency Paradox: The system is trapped in the Jevons Paradox, where policy focus on technical irrigation efficiency has fueled “vertical intensification” toward high-value, water-intensive crops, exacerbating basin-wide demand. The crisis is compounded by unregulated groundwater abstraction, particularly the overdraft in major basins. Findings, updated with Q3 2025 metrics, reveal that while the overall national unemployment rate declined to 16.2%, female unemployment among Jordanians remains acute at 33.9%, adding a layer of socio-economic vulnerability to the resource crisis. The causal mechanism for this depletion involves complex socio-political dynamics impacting monitoring enforcement. Escaping this situation requires a Just Transition strategy coupled with firm volumetric caps, ensuring long-term sustainability without sacrificing rural livelihoods.