Statistical Arbitrage Strategy in Multi-Asset Market Using Time Series Analysis
- 1 Innovation Lab Department, Nomura Asset Management Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan
- 2 Innovation Lab Department, Nomura Asset Management Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan
Abstract
The statistical arbitrage strategy is one of the most traditional investment strategies. There are many theoretical and empirical studies until now. However, almost all of the statistical arbitrage strategies focus on the price difference (spread) between two similar assets in the same asset class and exploit the mean reversion of spreads, i.e. pairs trading. In this study, we extend the strategy to multiple assets in the multi-asset market. Although mean-reverting portfolios were derived based on a single criterion in related researches, we derive a mean-reverting portfolio by optimizing multiple mean-reversion criteria. We expect that a mean-reverting portfolio based on multiple indicators leads to a higher return/risk. We perform an empirical analysis in multi-asset market and show the profitability of our strategy.
- Markowitz, H. (1952) Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7, 77-91. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:7:y:1952:i:1:p:77-91 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x
- Chakravorty, G., Awasthi, A. and Da Silva, B. (2018) Deep Learning for Global Tactical Asset Allocation. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3242432
- Chen, L., Peng, J., Zhang, B. and Rosyida, I. (2017) Diversified Models for Portfolio Selection Based on Uncertain Semivariance. International Journal of Systems Science, 48, 637-648. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207721.2016.1206985
- Qian, E. (2005) Risk Parity Portfolios: Efficient Portfolios through True Diversification. PanAgora Asset Management, Inc., Boston.
- Roncalli, T. and Weisang, G. (2016) Risk Parity Portfolios with Risk Factors. Quantitative Finance, 16, 377-388. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2015.1046907
- Uchiyama, Y., Kadoya, T. and Nakagawa, K. (2019) Complex Valued Risk Diversification. Entropy, 21, 119. https://doi.org/10.3390/e21020119
- Cuturi, M. and d’Aspremont, A. (2013) Mean Reversion with a Variance Threshold. International Conference on Machine Learning, Atlanta, 17 June 2013, 271-279. https://icml.cc/2013/index.html%3Fpage_id=868.html
- Zhao, Z. and Palomar, D.P. (2018) Mean-Reverting Portfolio with Budget Constraint. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 66, 2342-2357. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSP.2018.2799193
- Ganapathy Vidyamurthy (2004) Pairs Trading: Quantitative Methods and Analysis, Volume 217. John Wiley& Sons, Hoboken.
- Krauss, C. (2017) Statistical Arbitrage Pairs Trading Strategies: Review and Outlook. Journal of Economic Surveys, 31, 513-545. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12153
- Box, G.E. and Tiao, G.C. (1977) A Canonical Analysis of Multiple Time Series. Biometrika, 64, 355-365. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/64.2.355
- Bewley, R., Orden, D., Yang, M. and Fisher, L.A. (1994) Comparison of Box—Tiao and Johansen Canonical Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors in VEC (1) Models. Journal of Econometrics, 64, 3-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)90055-8
- Ljung, G.M. and Box, G.E. (1978) On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models. Biometrika, 65, 297-303. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/65.2.297
- Ylvisaker, N.D. (1965) The Expected Number of Zeros of a Stationary Gaussian Process. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 36, 1043-1046. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700077