Forecasting Value-at-Risk of Financial Markets under the Global Pandemic of COVID-19 Using Conditional Extreme Value Theory

Abstract

The recent global pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) has had an enormous impact on the financial markets across the world. It has created an unprecedented level of risk uncertainty, prompting investors to impetuously dispose of their assets leading to significant losses over a very short period. In this paper, the conditional heteroscedastic models and extreme value theory are combined to examine the extreme tail behaviour of stock indices from major economies over the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Daily returns data of stock market indices from twelve different countries are used in this study. The paper implements a dynamic method for forecasting a one-day ahead Value at Risk. As a first step, a comprehensive in-sample volatility modelling is implemented with skewed Student’s-t distribution assumption and their goodness of fit is determined using information selection criteria. In the second step, the VaR quantiles are estimated with the help of conditional Extreme Value Theory framework and then used to estimate the out-of-sample VaR forecasts. Backtesting results suggest that the conditional EVT based models consistently produce a better 1-day VaR performance compared with conditional models with asymmetric probability distributions for return innovations and maybe a better option in the estimation of VaR. This emphasizes the importance of modelling extreme events in stock markets using conditional extreme value theory and shows that the ability of the model to capture volatility clustering accurately is not sufficient for a correct assessment of risk in these markets.