Ruin Probabilities and Complex Analysis
- 1 Melbourne, Australia
Abstract
This paper considers the solution of the equations for ruin probabilities in infinite continuous time. Using the Fourier Transform and certain results from the theory of complex functions, these solutions are obtained as complex integrals in a form which may be evaluated numerically by means of the inverse Fourier Transform. In addition the relationship between the results obtained for the continuous time cases, and those in the literature, are compared. Closed form ruin probabilities for the heavy tailed distributions: mixed exponential; Gamma (including Erlang); Lognormal; Weibull; and Pareto, are derived as a result (or computed to any degree of accuracy, and without the use of simulations).
- Beard, R.E., Pentik¨ainen, T. and Pesonen, E. (1969) Risk Theory. Chapman and Hall, London.
- Bowers, N.L., Gerber, H.U., Hickman, J.C., Jones, D.A. and Nesbitt, C.J. (1986) Risk Theory. Education and Examination Committee of the Society of Actuaries. https://doi.org/10.1142/2779
- Asmussen, S. (2000) Ruin Probabilities. Vol. 2, World Scientific, Singapore.
- Meyers, G. and Beekman, J.A. (1987) An Improvement to the Convolution Method of Calculating ψ(u). Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 6, 267-274. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6687(87)90031-X
- Shiu, E.S.W. (1988) Calculation of the Probability of Eventual Ruin by Beekman’s Convolution Series. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 7, 41-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6687(88)90095-9
- Gerber, H.U. and Dufresne, F. (1989) Three Methods to Calculate the Probability of Ruin. ASTIN Bulletin, 19, 71-90.
- Gómez-Déniz, E., María Sarabia, J. and Calderín-Ojeda, E. (2019) Ruin Probability Functions and Severity of Ruin as a Statistical Decision Problem. Risks, 7, Article No. 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks7020068
- Prabhu, N.U. (2012) Stochastic Storage Processes: Queues, Insurance Risk, Dams, and Data Communications. Vol. 15, Springer Science and Business Media, Berlin, Heidelberg.
- Seal, H.L. (1980) Survival Probabilities Based on Pareto Claim Distributions. ASTIN Bulletin, 11, 61-71.
- Dickson, D.C.M. (2005) Insurance Risk and Ruin. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- Taylor, G.C. (1985) A Heuristic Review of Some Ruin Theory Results. ASTIN Bulletin, 15, 73-88.
- Rolski, T., Schmidli, H., Schmidt, V. and Teugels, J. (2009) Stochastic Processes for Insurance and Finance. Vol. 505, John Wiley, Hoboken.
- Arsac, J. (1966) Fourier Transforms and the Theory of Distributions. Prentice-Hall.
- Goodstein, R.L. (1965) Complex Functions. McGraw-Hill, New York.
- Constantinescu, C., Samorodnitsky, G. and Zhu, W. (2018) Ruin Probabilities in Classical Risk Models with Gamma Claims. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018, 555-575. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2017.1402817
- Leung, A.P. (2020) The Lognormal Characteristic Function in Several Dimensions, with Application to Asian Options. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 10, 399-411. https://doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2020.103024