The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) database was funded and created to address the premier financial database for the academic and financial communities. At the time that the CRSP was funded in 1960, there were no large sets of databases for financial research. Additional questions were analyzed regarding the usefulness of daily stock returns in event studies. Academicians, such as James Lorie and Lawrence Fisher, the CRSP co-Directors, were concerned with relative stock and bond monthly returns, 1926-1964. William Sharpe, were presented his analysis of mutual fund returns at one of the first CRSP research meetings. Barr Rosenberg was an early prolific researcher of equity models and made numerous CRSP presentations in the 1970s and early-1980s. Harry Markowitz and his research group at Daiwa Securities experimented with CRSP data for monthly stock portfolio selection of equity portfolios, presenting at several CRSP research seminars in the early 1990s. In this article, we update the Markowitz Daiwa Securities articles presented at CRSP. Expected stock returns are a key input to portfolio selection. Stock selection models often use momentum, analysts’ expectations, and fundamental data. We briefly trace the early economic theory of profits and stock prices, hypothesized by Wesley Clair Mitchell, the first Director of Research at the National Bureau of Economic Research, the NBER, 1910-1946. The Mitchell emphasis on corporate profits on business cycles was followed by the fundamental investing framework of the Graham and Dodd Security Analysis approach to investing. The fundamental approach to investing has been enhanced over the past 60 years by modeling stock data on momentum, analysts’ expectations, and fundamental using CRSP data. This analysis specifically updates research of the past 30 years.
KeywordsStock Prices and ReturnsRelative Stocks and Bond ReturnsPortfolio SelectionRobust RegressionEfficient Markets
Fisher, L. and Lorie, J.H. (1964) Rates of Return on Investments in Common Stocks. The Journal of Business , 37, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1086/294647
Fisher, L. (1966) Some New Stock-Market Indexes. The Journal of Business , 39, 191-225. https://doi.org/10.1086/294848
Lorie, J., Dodd, P. and Hamilton Kimpton, M. (1985) The Stock Market: Theories and Evidence. 2nd Edition, Richard D. Irwin, Inc.
Mitchell, W.C. (1913) Business Cycles. Burt Franklin Reprint.
Mitchell, W.C. (1927) Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. NBER.
Mitchell, W.C. (1951) What Happens during Business Cycles: A Progress Report. NBER.
Burns, A.F. and Mitchell, W.C. (1946) Measuring Business Cycles. NBER.
Graham, B. and Dodd, D. (1934) Security Analysis: Principles & Technique. McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Graham, B. and Dodd, D. (1951) Security Analysis: Principles & Technique. McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Graham, B., Dodd, D., Cottle, S., Block, E. and Murray, R.F. (1988) Security Analysis: Principles & Technique. 5th Edition, McGraw-Hill Book.
Williams, J.B. (1938) The Theory of Investment Value. Harvard University Press.
Markowitz, H.M. (1991) Foundations of Portfolio Theory. The Journal of Finance , 46, 469-477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02669.x
Bloch, M., Guerard, J., Markowitz, H., Todd, P. and Xu, G. (1993) A Comparison of Some Aspects of the U.S. and Japanese Equity Markets. Japan and the World Economy , 5, 3-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/0922-1425(93)90025-y
Guerard, J.B., Markowitz, H. and Xu, G. (2014) The Role of Effective Corporate Decisions in the Creation of Efficient Portfolios. IBM Journal of Research and Development , 58, Paper 11. https://doi.org/10.1147/jrd.2014.2326591
Guerard, J.B., Markowitz, H. and Xu, G. (2015) Earnings Forecasting in a Global Stock Selection Model and Efficient Portfolio Construction and Management. International Journal of Forecasting , 31, 550-560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.10.003
Guerard, J.B., Takano, M. and Yamane, Y. (1993) The Development of Efficient Portfolios in Japan with Particular Emphasis on Sales and Earnings Forecasting. Annals of Operations Research , 45, 91-108. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02282043
Guerard, J.B., Gultekin, M. and Stone, B.K. (1997) The Role of Fundamental Data and Analysts’ Earnings Breadth, Forecasts, and Revisions in the Creation of Efficient Portfolios. In: Chen, A., Ed., Research in Finance , Vol. 15, Emerald JAI, 69-91.
Elton, E.J., Gruber, M.J. and Gultekin, M. (1981) Expectations and Share Prices. Management Science , 27, 975-987. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.9.975
Guerard, J.B. and Mark, A. (2003) The Optimization of Efficient Portfolios: The Case for an R & D Quadratic Term. In: Chen, A., Ed., Research in Finance , Vol. 20, JAI Press, 213-247.
Guerard, J.B. and Mark, A. (2022) Earnings Forecasts and Revisions, Price Momentum, and Fundamental Data: Further Explorations of Financial Anomalies. In: Lee, C.F., Eds., Handbook of Financial Econometrics , Mathematics , Statistics , and Machine Learning , World Scientific Publishing, 1151-1209.
Beaton, A.E. and Tukey, J.W. (1974) The Fitting of Power Series, Meaning Polynomials, Illustrated on Band-Spectroscopic Data. Technometrics , 16, 147-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1974.10489171
Martin, R.D., Guerard, J.B. and Xia, D.Z. (2024) Earnings to Price Analysis with mOpt versus Bisquare Robust Regression. Journal of Mathematical Finance , 14, 243-249. https://doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2024.142014
Maronna, R.A., Martin, R.D., Yohai, V.J. and Salibian-Barrera, M. (2019) Robust Statistics; Theory & Methods with R. Wiley.
Tobin, J. (1958) Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk. The Review of Economic Studies , 25, 65-86. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296205
Markowitz, H. (1952) Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance , 7, 77-91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x
Markowitz, H.M. (1959) Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investment. Cowles Foundation Monograph No. 16, John Wiley & Sons.
Markowitz, H. (1987) Mean-Variance Analysis in Portfolio Choice & Capital Markets. Basil Blackwell.
Sharpe, W.F. (1963) A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis. Management Science , 9, 277-293. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.277
Sharpe, W.F. (1964) Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance , 19, 425-442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
Lintner, J. (1965) The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics , 47, 13-37. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924119
Mossin, J. (1966) Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market. Econometrica , 34, 768-783. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910098
Mossin, J. (1977) The Economic Efficiency of Financial Markets. Lexington Books.
Rosenberg, B. and Marathe, V. (1979) Tests of Capital Asset Pricing Hypotheses. In: Levy, H., Ed., Research in Finance , 115-224.
Rudd, A. and Rosenberg, B. (1979) Realistic Portfolio Optimization. In: Elton, E. and Gruber, M.J., Eds., Portfolio Theory , 25 Years after , North-Holland, 21-46.
Rudd, A. and Clasing, H.K. (1982) Modern Portfolio Theory: The Principals of Investment Management. Dow-Jones-Irwin.
Grinold, R. and Kahn, R. (1999) Active Portfolio Management. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Blin, J.M., Bender, S. and Guerard Jr. (1997) Earnings Forecasts, Revisions & Mo-mentum in the Estimation of Efficient Market-Neutral Japanese & U.S. Portfolios. In: Chen, A., Ed., Research in Finance , Vol. 15, JAI Press, 93-114.
Blin, J., Guerard, J. and Mark, A. (2022) A History of Commercially Available Risk Models. In: Lee, C.F., Ed., Encyclopedia of Finance , Springer International Publishing, 1-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73443-5_99-2
Guerard, J.B., Xu, G. and Markowitz, H. (2020) A Further Analysis of Robust Regression Modeling and Data Mining Corrections Testing in Global Stocks. Annals of Operations Research , 303, 175-195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03521-y
Markowitz, H.M. and Xu, G.L. (1994) Data Mining Corrections. The Journal of Portfolio Management , 21, 60-69. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1994.409494
Guerard, J.B., Thomakos, D., Kyriazi, F., Xu, G. and Beheshti, B. (2025) Earnings Forecasting and Mean-variance Efficient Portfolios in the US and Japan: 30 Years After the Markowitz and Ziemba Applications. Annals of Operations Research , 346, 393-414. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-06432-4
Martin, R.D., Guerard, J.B. and Xia, D.Z. (2024) Earnings to Price Analysis with mOpt versus Bisquare Robust Regression. Journal of Mathematical Finance , 14, 243-249. https://doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2024.142014
Martin, R.D., Guerard, J.B. and Xia, D.Z. (2024) Resurrecting Earnings-to-Price with Robust Control for Outliers. The Journal of Portfolio Management , 50, 60-81. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2024.1.626
Latané, H.A. (1959) Criteria for Choice among Risky Ventures. Journal of Political Economy , 67, 144-155. https://doi.org/10.1086/258157
Latane, H.A., Tuttle, D.L. and Jones, C.P. (1975) Security Analysis and Portfolio Management. The Ronald Press Company.
Shao, B.P., Guerard, J.B. and Xu, G. (2024) Mean-Variance and Mean-Etl Optimizations in Portfolio Selection: An Update. Annals of Operations Research , 346, 657-671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-06337-2
Harvey, C.R., Liu, Y. and Zhu, H. (2015) … and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns. Review of Financial Studies , 29, 5-68. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv059
Harvey, C.R. (2017) Presidential Address: The Scientific Outlook in Financial Economics. The Journal of Finance , 72, 1399-1440. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12530
Guerard, J. (2023) Harry Markowitz: An Appreciation. International Journal of Forecasting , 39, 1496-1501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.07.004
Conner, G., Goldberg, L.R. and Korajczyk, R. (2010) Portfolio Risk Analysis. Princeton University Press.
Shu, Y., Yu, C. and Mulvey, J.M. (2024) Dynamic Asset Allocation with Asset-Specific Regime Forecasts. Annals of Operations Research , 346, 285-318. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-06266-0
López de Prado, M., Simonian, J., Fabozzi, F.A. and Fabozzi, F.J. (2024) Enhancing Markowitz’s Portfolio Selection Paradigm with Machine Learning. Annals of Operations Research , 346, 319-340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-06257-1
Miller, D., Xu, G. and Guerard Jr., J.B. (2014) Portfolio Construction and Management in the Barra Aegis System: A Case Study using the USER Data. Journal of Investing , 23, 111-120. https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2014.23.4.111
Markowitz, H.M. and Guerard Jr., J.B. (2018) The Existence and Persistence of Financial Anomalies: What Have You Done for Me Lately? Financial Planning Review .