Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models with Regime Switching

Abstract

We establish that [1] ’s parameters are universally unidentified and a subset of their parameterization is over identified. As a solution to the problem with the identifiability, we propose a new representation of double-regime three-factor GDTSMs whose parameters are just-identified when the number of the pricing-with-error yields equals 2. This new parametrization has another advantage over [2] in that we can back out Q parameters and P parameters separately and make the estimation of structural parameters easier. Finally, we show that regime-switching three-factor arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is a restricted special case of our model.