Interest-Rate Modeling Conundrums
- 1 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Financial Engineering Division, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, USA
- 2 Gamma Paradigm Capital, New York, USA
Abstract
The mainstream research in interest-rate modeling has been focusing on a collection of risk tools and pricing formulas which are developed based on the simplified market assumptions and hypotheses. Despite the elegance of the structure, it is noticed that a crucial yet natural factor is missing: the relationship between curve-fitting algorithms and no-arbitrage restrictions on a bond portfolio. Also, the discrepancy between risk-free and default-free bonds is often ignored. This study discusses the modeling conundrums and proposes a framework based on the preferred-habitat hypothesis for advanced term-structure construction that overcomes these limitations in current models. This article serves as an introduction for future work.
- Fisher, I. (1930) The Theory of Interest. Macmillan, New York.
- Harrison, J.M. and Pliska, S.R. (1981) Martingales and Stochastic Integrals in the Theory of Continuous Trading. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, 11, 215-260. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4149(81)90026-0
- Geman, H., El Karoui, N. and Rochet, J.-C. (1995) Changes of Numéraire, Changes of Probability Measure and Option Pricing. Journal of Applied Probability, 32, 443-458. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3215299
- Jarrow, R.A. (2009) The Term Structure of Interest Rates. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 2, 69-96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.financial.050808.114513
- Culbertson, J. (1957) The Term Structure of Interest Rates. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 71, 485-517. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1885708
- Modigliani, F. and Sutch, R. (1966) Innovations in Interest-Rate Policy. Interest-Rate Policy. American Economic Review, 56, 178-197.
- Filipovic, D. (2001) Consistency Problems for Heath-Jarrow-Morton Interest Rate Models. Springer, Berlin. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/b76888
- Krishnamurthy, A. and Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2010) The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt. Working Paper.
- Duffee, G.R. (1996) Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields. Journal of Finance, 51, 527-551. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02693.x
- Duffee, G.R. (1996) Special Repo Rates. Journal of Finance, 51, 493-526. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02692.x
- Heath, D., Jarrow, R. and Morton, A. (1992) Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation. Econometrica, 60, 77-105. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951677
- Bjork, T. (2009) Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time. 3rd Edition, Oxford.