An Empirical Analysis of the Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods by Using Time Series Model

Abstract

With the continuous improvement of living standards, the total amount of social consumer goods in China’s economic development has occupied an important position. Its fluctuations can indirectly reflect the demand and purchasing power of commodities, thus affecting the state’s macroeconomic regulation and control. This paper selects the total amount of social consumer goods in China from August 2005 to February 2019. Using EViews 7.2 software, this paper makes use of the correlation analysis of sequence fluctuation in econometrics and financial time series, and finds the best fitting EGARCH (1,1) model based on ARMA (1,0) to conduct an empirical analysis of the total amount of social consumer goods in China, and concludes that the total amount of social consumer goods in China has leverage effect.