Classification and Prediction on Rural Property Mortgage Data with Three Data Mining Methods
- 1 School of Science, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China
- 2 School of Science, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China
- 3 School of Science, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China
Abstract
The Farmers Property Mortgage Policy is a strategic financial policy in western China, a relatively underdeveloped region. Many contradictions and conflicts exist in the process between the strong demand for the loans by farmers and the strict risk control by the financial institutions. The rural finance corporations should use scientific analysis and investigation of the potential households for overall evaluation of the customers. These include historical credit rating, present family situation, and other related information. Three different data mining methods were applied in this paper to the specifically-collected household data. The objective was to study which factor could be the most important in determining loan demand for households, and in the meanwhile, to classify and predict the possibility of loan demand for the potential customers. The results obtained from the three methods indicated the similar outputs, income level, land area, the way of loan, and the understanding of policy were four main factors which decided the probability of one specific farmer applying for a credit loan. The results also embodied the difference within the three methods for classifying and predicting the loan anticipation for the testing households. The artificial neural network model had the highest accuracy of 91.4 which is better than the other two methods.
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