Dynamic Analysis of Influencing Factors and Forecast of Development Trend of “Disappearance of Rural Primary Schools”
- 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan First Normal University, Changsha, China
Abstract
A time series model was used to screen the causes of changes in the number of rural elementary schools from 1996 to 2019 related to schools, classes, and students in rural, township, and urban areas, as well as the birth rate, population growth rate, and urbanization rate, and a VAR model was dev eloped with five strong influencing factors of rural classes, students, urban schools, classes, and growth rate of students in schools and changes in rural schools. The variance decomposition of the model shows that the continuous reduction of rural classes (student attrition) and the growth of urban students (rural students ’ rural-urban mobility) are the main reasons for the disappearance o f rural elementary schools, while the policy of “ removing and mergin g schools ” does not have a long-term impact on the disappearance of rural schools and does not accelerate the disappearance of rural elementary school.
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