Prioritizing Supply Chain Disruption Risks in Maritime Logistics at the Port of Cotonou, Benin Using a Hybrid AHP-ERA Evaluation Framework

Abstract

Purpose : This study prioritizes supply chain disruption risks at the Port of Cotonou, Benin, to support strategic decision-making and enhance port resilience in a developing country context. Design/ Methodology / Approach : A hybrid risk evaluation framework combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Evidential Reasoning Approach (ERA) is applied using simulated expert-based data from literature and port reports. Findings : Environmental and natural risks emerged as the most significant disruption source (EU = 0.540), followed by security and operational risks. Sensitivity analysis confirmed high vulnerability to flooding and erosion, supporting the need for climate-resilient infrastructure. Originality/ Value : The study offers a replicable methodology for under-studied maritime environments and contributes to the advancement of hybrid decision-making tools in logistics risk management.