A Freight Mode Choice Analysis Using a Binary Logit Model and GIS: The Case of Cereal Grains Transportation in the United States — Oak Academic Publishing
Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
A Freight Mode Choice Analysis Using a Binary Logit Model and GIS: The Case of Cereal Grains Transportation in the United States
Division of Regional and City Planning, College of Architecture, School of Industrial Engineering College of Engineering, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA
,
1 Division of Regional and City Planning, College of Architecture, School of Industrial Engineering College of Engineering, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA
Mode choice is important in shipping commodities efficiently. This paper develops a binary logit model and a regression model to study the cereal grains movement by truck and rail in the United States using the publically available Freight Analysis Framework (FAF 2.2 ) database and U.S. highway and networks and TransCAD, a geographic information system with strong transportation modeling capabilities. The binary logit model and the regression model both use the same set of generic variables, including mode split probability, commodity weight, value, network travel time, and fuel cost. The results show that both the binary logit and regression models perform well for cereal grains transportation in the United States, with the binary logit model yielding overall better estimates with respect to the observed truck and rail mode splits. The two models can be used to study other commodities between two modes and may produce better results if more mode specific variables are used.
U.S. Census Bureau, “Commodity Flow Survey,” 2007. http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/cfsmain.html
Federal Highway Administration, “Fuel Consumption by Transporta-tion Mode: 1980-2005,” 2008. http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/docs/07factsfigures/table5_7.htm
Federal Highway Administration, “Freight Analysis Frame- work,” 2009. http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/
S. J. Siwek, “Statewide Transportation Planning under ISTEA: A New Framework for Decision Making,” Report No. FHWA-PD-96-026A, Washington DC, 1996.
Federal Highway Administration, “Safe, Accountable, Flexi- ble, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users,” 2005. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/index.htm
Transpor-tation Research Board, “The Transportation of Grain”, 2008. http://www.envisionfreight.com/value/pdf/Grain.pdf
United States Department of Agriculture, “Transportation of U.S. Grains: A Modal Share Analysis, 1978-2004,” USDA Agricultural Marketing Services, October 2006.
Cambridge Systematics, “West Coast Corridor Coalition Trade and Transportation Study: Final Report,” Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, 2008.
J. Fritelli, “Grain Transport: Modal Trends and Infrastructure Implica-tions,” CRS Report for Congress, 5 January 2005.
R. D. Luce, “Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis,” John Wiley, New York, 1959.
S. L. Warner, “Stochastic Choice of Mode in Urban Travel: A Study in Binary Choice,” 3rd Edition, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, 1962.
D. A. Quarmby, “Choice of Travel Mode for the Journey to Work: Some Findings,” Journal of Transportation Economics and Policy, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1967, pp. 273-314.
R. G. McGillivray, “Binary Choice of Urban Transport Mode in the San Francisco Region,” Econometrica, Vol. 40, No. 5, 1970, pp. 827-848.
A. G. Wilson, “Urban and Re-gional Models in Geography and Planning,” John Wiley, Lon-don, 1974.
T. Domencich and D. McFadden, “Urban Travel Demand: A Behavioral Analysis,” American Elsevier Publishing Company, New York, 1975.
K. Train, “A Structured Logit Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 47, No. 2, 1980, pp. 357-370. doi:10.2307/2296997
M. E. Ben-Akiva and S. R. Lerman, “Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand,” Master’s Thesis, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1985.
B. Bayliss, “The Measurement of Supply and De-mand in Freight Transport,” Avebury, Brookfield, 1988.
L. D. Frank and G. Pivo, “Impacts of Mixed use and Density on Utilization of Three Modes of Travel: Sin-gle-Occupant Vehicle, Transit, and Walking,” Transportation Research Record 1466, Transportation Research Board, Washington DC, 1994, pp. 44-52.
D. Levinson and A. Kumar, “A Multimodal Trip Distribution Model: Structure and Application,” Transportation Research Record 1466, National Research Council, Washington DC, 1995, pp. 124-131.
J. Rajamani, C. Bhat, S. Handy and G. Knaap, “Assessing the Impact of Urban Form Measures in Nonwork Trip Mode Choice after Controlling for Demographic and Level-of-Service Effects,” Transportation Research Board 2003 Annual Meeting Presentation, Washington DC, 2003.
S. Krygsman, “Ac-tivity and Travel Choice(s) in Multimodal Public Transport Systems,” Ph.D. Dissertation, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 2004.
E. Cascetta, “Transportation Systems Engineering: Theory and Methods,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, London, 2001.
C. Winston, “The Demand for Freight Transporta-tion: Models and Applications,” Transportation Research, Vol. 17A, No. 6, 1983, pp. 419-427.
P. D. Cook, S. Das, A. Aeppli and C. Martland, “Key Factors in Road-Rail Model Choice in India: Applying the Logistics Cost Approach,” Simulation Conference Proceedings, Phoenix, 5-8 December 1999, pp. 1280- 1286.
M. Daniel, “Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior,” In: P. Zarembka, Ed., Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, New York, 1973, pp. 105-142.
W. Miklius, K. L. Casavant and P. V. Gar-rod, “Estimation of Demand for Transportation of Agricultural Commodities,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 58, No. 2, 1976, pp. 217-223. doi:10.2307/1238972
F. S. Inada and N. E. Wallace, “Spatial Price Competition and the Demand for Freight Trans-portation,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, No. 4, 1989, pp. 614-625. doi:10.2307/1928103
A. Reg-giani, P. Nijjkamp and L. Nobilio, “Spatial Modal Patterns in European Freight Transport Networks: Results of Neuro-Computing and Logit Models,” Series Research Memo-randa No. 0029, Free University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1997.
K. Kockelman, L. Lin, Y. Zhao and N. Ruiz-Juri, “Tracking Land Use, Transport, and Industrial Production Us-ing Random-Utility Based Multi-Regional Input-Output Models: Applications for Texas Trade,” Transport Geography, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2004, pp. 275-286.
S. Newton and C. Wright, “The GB Freight Model: Methodology,” Draft Paper, MDS Transmo-dal LTD, Chester, 2003. http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/gbfreightmodel.pdf
M. Michael and M. Eric, “Urban Transportation Plan-ning,” Master’s Thesis, Mc Graw Hill, Boston, 2001.
Bureau of Transportation Statis-tics, 2007. http://www.bts.gov/
C. Winston, “A Disaggregate Model of the Demand for Intercity Freight Transportation,” Econo-metrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, 1981, pp. 981-1006. doi:10.2307/1912514
J. Crystal, M. Daniel and S. Jeffery, “Methods of Travel Time Significance in Freight-Significant Corridors,” Tran- sportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washtington DC, 9-13 January 2005, pp. 1-19.
S. E. Eastman, “Fuel Efficiency in Freight Trans-portation,” Transportation Research Record, 824, Transporta-tion Research Board, Washington DC, 1981, pp. 7-13.
S. C. Davis, S. W. Diegel and R. G. Bounday, “Transportation Energy Data Book,” 28th Edition, Oak Ridge National Labora-tory, Oak Ridge, 2006. doi:10.2172/930743