Modeling Motorization Development in China

Abstract

Entering the 21st century, China’s economic development has reached new heights and the country has ascended to the world’s second largest economy. The 20 year unrelenting development in China also stimulates income growth. The increased disposable income enables an ordinary Chinese family vehicle ownership which was unthinkable two decades ago. The most populous country has started a love affair with automobile just like in the United States. Annual automobile sales in China rose from 2.1 million in 2000 to 18.1 million in 2010 with a yearly growth rate of 24.3%, which spurs the vehicle ownership increase from 18.1 million in 2000 to 78.8 million in 2010, a growth rate of 15.9% The unprecedented motorization development in China is making a huge impact on all aspects of society, including negative consequences that cannot be ignored. Traffic congestion, air pollution, and dependency on imported oil are huge emerging problems threatening Chinese sustainable development. Although these problems occurred and still exist in many other developed and developing countries, they are more acute in China today. By collecting and analyzing the massive data from various sources, this paper explores the relationship between economic development and level of mobility by studying the historical developments from several developed counties and discusses the key issues in Chinese motorization development. The objective of the study is to predict the future level of motorization and its potential impacts.