A Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on a Three-Layer K-Nearest Neighbor Non-Parametric Regression Algorithm
- 1 School of Information Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan, China
- 2 School of Information Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan, China
- 3 Department of Intelligent Traffic Engineering, Yigou Software Technolog Co. Ltd., Jinan, China
Abstract
Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.
- Jing, Y., Gao, J.W., Wang, B. and Leng, Z.W. (2012) Urban Traffic State Discriminant Method. Qingdao University Journal (Engineering and Technology Edition), 3.
- Jia, N., Ma, S.F. and Zhong, S.Q. (2012) Traffic Flow Nonparametric Regression Forecasting Method Based on Genetic Algorithm to Optimize the KD Tree. Control and Decision, 7.
- Yakowitz, S. (1987) Nearest-Neighbour Methods for Time Series Analyais. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 8, 10-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1987.tb00435.x
- Davis, G. and Nihan, N. (1991) Nonparametric Regression and Short-Term Freeway Traffic Forecasting. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 117, 178-188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1991)117:2(178)
- Jin, S., Wang, D.-H., Xu, C. and Ma, D.-F. (2013) Short-Term Traffic Safety Forecasting Using Gaussian Mixture Model and Kalman Filter. Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A (Applied Physics & Engineering), 4.
- Tchrakian, T.T., Basu, B. and O’Mahony, M. (2012) Real-Time Traffic Flow Forecasting Using Spectral Analysis. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 13, 519-526. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2011.2174634
- Chan, K.Y., Dillon, T.S., Singh, J., et al. (2012) Neural-Network-Based Models for Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Using a Hybrid Exponential Smoothing and Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 13, 644-654. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2011.2174051
- Xu, Y.Y., Kong, Q.J. and Liu, Y.C. (2013) Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction Using Classification and Regression Trees. IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV), 493-498.
- Min, W. and Wynter, L. (2011) Real-Time Road Traffic Prediction with Spatio-Temporal Correlations. Transportation Research Part C, 19, 606-616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2010.10.002
- Karlafitis, M.G. and Vlahogianni, E.I. (2011) Statistial Methods versus Neural Networks in Transportation Research: Difference, Similarities and Some Insights. Transprotation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 19, 387-399. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2010.10.004