Strategic Resilience: A Comprehensive Analysis of Jordan’s Water Security, Digital Transformation, and Infrastructure Modernization

Abstract

This study evaluates the strategic transition toward “Hydrological Autonomy” through a Geo-Systemic and Techno-Economic framework and identifies a dual-nexus structural dependency: while the $6 billion National Conveyance Project (NCP) is a sovereign priority based on the Organic Theory of the State, its long-term viability is anchored in the Energy-Water-Sovereignty Nexus. However, a systemic “Red Alert” is identified regarding the $153.6 million Water Sector IT Roadmap, which faces a 60% CAPEX funding gap. This study demonstrates that bridging this digital gap is a prerequisite for broader resilience: digital modernization reduces physical and administrative losses, thereby increasing effective supply, preserving groundwater aquifers, and ultimately lowering the national energy burden for water pumping. To address the decline of national statistical capacity to 60/100, the study introduces the “Hidden Loss Gap”—an original contribution—to quantify masked network decay, incorporating newly calculated 2023 data. Findings reveal that Yarmouk Water Company (YWC) maintains a structural loss of 6,955 L/connection/day (L/C/D). In Amman (Miyahuna), an increase in supply duration to 38 hours triggered an NRW% rise to 44.7%, validating the “Operational Paradox” where traditional metrics penalize service improvement. Furthermore, with commercial losses (driven by unauthorized consumption) accounting for 70% of Non-Revenue Water (NRW), the Rule of Law (0.26 estimate) is primary technical prerequisite for enforcement. Finally, drawing from the CAO/IFC Baynouna investigation, the study warns that not institutionalizing transparent social compliance frameworks regarding land rights risks the $2.2 billion in secured international financing required for construction.