Climatic Variability, Perception, and Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies in the Ramsar Sites of the Middle Niger

Abstract

Sahelian wetlands play a central role in the livelihoods of local populations, while being highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. This study analyzes recent trends in climatic parameters, farmers’ perceptions, and local adaptation strategies in the Ramsar sites of the Middle Niger wetlands (MN I and MN II). The methodological approach combines observed climate data (precipitation, temperature, and wind) for the period 1993-2024 with socio-economic surveys conducted among 434 households across 14 riparian villages. The results indicate pronounced interannual variability in precipitation, characterized by alternating periods of deficit and surplus, with longer and more frequent dry spells observed in MN II. Thermal analysis reveals a general increase in temperatures, with average maximum temperatures reaching 39.66?C (MN I) and 39.34?C (MN II), alongside a more rapid rise in minimum temperatures, whose averages reach 20.10?C and 20.14?C, respectively, indicating a marked intensification of nocturnal warming. Furthermore, a significant intensification of wind speed is observed, heightening environmental vulnerability, particularly in MN II. These climatic trends are largely consistent with local perceptions: 69.9% to 78.1% of respondents reported an increase in daytime temperatures, and 40.9% to 60.1% observed a rise in nighttime temperatures. The main perceived environmental impacts are declining water levels (48 - 54%), degradation of aquatic vegetation (46 - 58%), and loss of wildlife (13 - 20%). In response to these constraints, local populations have developed adaptation strategies primarily involving the use of organic fertilizer, mulching, and adoption of resilient crop varieties; however, the effectiveness of these measures remains limited for ensuring ecosystem sustainability.