Development of a Regional Regression Model for Estimating Annual Runoff in the Hailar River Basin of China
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
Abstract
The Hailar River, a first-grade tributary of the Erguna River that borders China and Russia, is the main water source for the local industry and agriculture. However, because there are only 11 flow gauging stations and those stations cannot monitor all runoff paths, it is hard to directly use the existing flow data to estimate the annual runoffs from all subbasins of interest although such estimation is needed for utilization and protection of the water resources in the Hailar River. Thus, this study implemented an indirect approach (i.e., regional regression model) by correlating annual runoff with annual rainfall and water surface evaporation as well as hydrologic characteristics of the 11 subbasins monitored by the gauging stations. The study used 51 years (from 1956 to 2006) data. The results indicated a significant correlation (R2 > 0.87) between annual runoff and the selected subbasin characteristics and showed the model to be robust because the predicted runoffs for the validation period are compatible with the corresponding observed values. In addition, this model was used to estimate the annual runoffs for the subbasins that are not monitored by the 11 flow gauging stations, which adds new information to existing literature.
- L. Oyebande, “Water Problems in Africa-How Can Sciences Help,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 46, No. 6, 2001, pp. 947-961.
- J. C. Rodda, “Water under Pressure,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 46, No. 6, 2001, pp. 841-853.
- D. Mazvimavi, A. M. J. Meijerink, H. H. G. Savenije and A. Stein, “Prediction of Flow Characteristics Using Multiple Regression and Neural Networks: A Case Study in Zimbabwe,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 30, 2005, pp. 639-647.
- S. M. Chiang, T. K. Tsay and S. J. Nix, “Hydrologic Regionalization of Watersheds. I: Methodology,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 128, No. 1, 2002, pp. 3-11.
- D. M. Thomas and M. A. Benson, ‘‘Generalization of Streamflow Characteristics from Drainage-basin Characteristics,’’ U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper, 1970, pp. 1975.
- M. W. Busby, ‘‘Yearly Variations in Runoff for the Conterminous United States, 1931–60,’’ U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper, 1963, pp. 1669-S.
- W. A. Gebert, D. J. Graczyk and W. R. Krug, ‘‘Average Annual Runoff in the United States, 1951–80.’’ Hydrologic Investigations Atlas, 1987, pp. HA-70.
- G. D. Bishop and M. R. Church, ‘‘Automated Approaches for Regional Runoff Mapping in the Northeastern United States,’’ J. Hydro., Amsterdam, Vol. 138, 1992, pp. 361-383.
- N. W. Arnell, ‘‘Grid Mapping of River Discharge,’’ J. Hydro., Amsterdam, Vol. 167, 1995, pp. 39-56.
- N. E. Hawley and R. H. McCuen, ‘‘Water Yield Estimation in Western United States,’’ J. Irrig. and Drain. Div., Vol. 108, No. 1, 1085, pp. 25-35.
- R. M. Vogel, C. Bell and N. M. Fennessey, ‘‘Climate, Streamflow and Water Supply in the Northeastern United States,’’ J. Hydro., Amsterdam, Vol. 198, 1997, pp. 42-68.
- S. I. Majtenyi, ‘‘A Model to Predict Annual Watershed Discharge,’’ J. Hydr. Div., Vol. 93, No. 7, 1972, pp. 1171-1186.
- S. M. Vogel, I. Wilson and C. Daly, “Regional Regression Models of Annual Streamflow for the United States,” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Vol. 125, 1999, pp. 148-157.
- H. W. Lull and W .E. Sopper, ‘‘Factors that Influence Streamflow in the Northeast,’’ Water Resour. Res., Vol. 2, No. 3, 1966, pp. 361-369.
- C. G. Johnson, ‘‘A Proposed Streamflow Data Program for Central New England,’’ Open-File Rep., U.S. Geological Survey, Boston, Mass.