Identification of Failure Years by Modification of Yield Model in Isapur Reservoir, India

Abstract

The failure years for a desired annual reliability of a water use were prespecified in the yield model. These failure years were identified prior to the solution of the model by observing the critical period in the given annual flow record. Some initial trials of the yield model were usually sufficient to identify the failure years. Simulation can be employed for exact identification of these failure years. A method for determination of failure years through the yield model is presented in this paper, as an alternative to simulation. The yield model employing this method is useful when the reliability of water use is to be considered as a decision variable. The method for determination of failure years by yield model is adopted for further analysis and compare with the simulation model, one of the failure year is not matching with the common set of failure years in the simulation model.