Assessment of Saltwater Intrusion and Discharges to a Wetland with a 3D Transient Variable Density Flow Model: The Coastal Plane Oropesa-Torreblanca Aquifer, Spain

Abstract

The proper characterization of coastal aquifers requires modeling variable density flow effects. However, most models estimate processes as saline intrusion based on 2D models with constant density and are rarely calibrated to honor salinity measurements. These facts limit the model predictions reliability, affecting the estimated hydrodynamic parameters, external stresses, and other model outputs that can be critical for planning or management decisions. This paper describes the re-assessment of a coastal aquifer model (Oropesa-Torreblanca, eastern Spain) subjected to moderate-to-high saline intrusion with a transient 3D variable density flow model. Previous models were based on 2D low-resolution grids without variable density effects. The new model honors the observed trends of both piezometric and salinity data. Results show the importance of the variable density effects having on critical outputs as sea intrusion and the discharges to a local wetland of high environmental value. The widespread intrusion process and its current stabilization are confirmed but, compared to previous models, the annual average intrusion is 156% higher, discharge to the wetland increases 30%, and the inflows from neighboring formations increase 22%. The more accurate aquifer models, as well as the new discharges and intrusion estimations, are important contributions for future water and environmental planning decisions in the area.