Future Extremes Temperature: Trends and Changes Assessment over the Mono River Basin, Togo (West Africa)

Abstract

This study assessed the extreme temperatures trends and changes over Mono River Basin under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulations of five (5) regional climate models (RCMs) provided by Africa-CORDEX program were selected from the eighth (8) considered. Future trends in temperature percentiles, including extremes, are used to assess changes in the distribution of daily temperature over Mono Basin in Togo. Changes of temperature and Extreme low (high) temperatures from the baseline period 1961-2010 were computed for future (2051-2100). This analysis reveals that in the north of the basin, for the positive trends, the maximum is 0.82°C·year -1 given by model MPI-ESM2 at Tchamba while the strongest negative change is 0.26°C·year -1 given by model MIROC at Sotouboua. In the south of the basin, the strongest negative trend is of 0.03°C·year -1 given by model (A) CNRM-CMA5. The maximum ones of the trends for models-mean are all positive except at Anié. Higher percentiles of minimum and maximum temperature will increase at a greater rate than the lower percentiles during dry and rainy seasons (with differences more pronounced for maximum values) over the north. Concerning future changes, almost all the RCMs predicted an increase of maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the Mono Basin, particularly in the north. Finally, results predicted an increase of TX90P (TX10P) and TN90P (TN10P) from 10% to 45% (13% to 40%) and 0% to 35% (12% Mean value), respectively over Mono Basin.