Transportation infrastructure is an important factor driving regional economic growth, and scientifically evaluating the economic growth effects of key transportation infrastructure is an important theoretical issue of devel opment economics. This paper takes the opening of Dongguan Humen Bridge as a quasi-natural experiment, and quantitatively identifies the regional growth effect it brings. This paper uses panel data from 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 1991 to 2007, and based on the synthetic control method, assigns different weights to the cities in the control group to construct the “ counterfactual ” state of Dongguan where the Humen Bridge is not opened, so as to compare the difference in economic development between “ real Dongguan City ” and “ Synthetic Dongguan City ” . The results show that the opening of the Humen Bridge in 1997 made Dongguan’s GDP and GDP per capita exceed the theoretical level that could be achieved when the Humen Bridge was not opened. The opening of the Humen Bridge significantly changed the economic growth trend of Dongguan. With the passage of time, the opening of the Humen Bridge has continuously strengthened the promotion of Dongguan ’ s economic growth, indicating that the transportation infrastructure has a long-term effect on the promotion of regional economic growth. This work advances the research on the relationship between transportation infrastructure and regional economic growth.
KeywordsSynthetic Control MethodHumen BridgeEconomic Growth
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93, 113-132. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455188
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105, 493-505. https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746
Ando, M. (2015). Dreams of Urbanization: Quantitative Case Studies on the Local Impacts of Nuclear Power Facilities Using the Synthetic Control Method. Journal of Urban Economics, 85, 68-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2014.10.005
Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 177-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
Atack, J., Bateman, F., Haines, M., & Margo, R. A. (2010). Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth? Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850-1860. Social Science History, 34, 171-197. https://doi.org/10.1215/01455532-2009-024
Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Qian, N. (2012). On the Road: Access to Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China. NBER Working Paper, No. 17897. https://doi.org/10.3386/w17897
Barro, R. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103-S125. https://doi.org/10.1086/261726
Bougheas, S., Demetriades, P. O., & Morgenroth, E. L. W. (1999). Infrastructure, Transport Costs and Trade. Journal of International Economics, 47, 169-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00008-7
Button, K., & Taylor, S. (2000). International Air Transportation and Economic Development. Journal of Air Transport Management, 6, 209-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(00)00015-6
Chandra, A., & Thompson, E. (2000). Does Public Infrastructure Affect Economic Activity? Evidence from the Rural Interstate Highway System. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30, 457-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(00)00040-5
Clark, X., Dollar, D., & Micco, A. (2004). Port Efficiency, Maritime Transport Costs, and Bilateral Trade. Journal of Development Economics, 75, 417-450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.06.005
Demurger, S. (2001). Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 29, 95-117. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2000.1693
Evans, P., & Karras, G. (1994a). Are Government Activities Productive? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 76, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109821
Evans, P., & Karras, G. (1994b). Is Government Capital Productive? Evidence from a Panel of Seven Countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 16, 271-279. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704(94)90071-X
Fedderke, J. W., & Bogetic, Z. (2009). Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures. World Development, 37, 1522-1539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.01.008
Fernald, J. G. (1999). Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity. American Economic Review, 89, 619-638. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.3.619
Francois, J., & Manchin, M. (2013). Institutions, Infrastructure and Trade. World Development, 46, 165-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.02.009
Fujimura, M., & Edmonds, C. (2006). Impact of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure on Trade and Investment in the Gms. Adb Institute Discussion Paper, No. 48.
Gao, B., Chen, J., & Zou, L. H. (2012). Housing Price’ Regional Differences, Labor Mobility and Industrial Upgrading. Economic Research Journal, 1, 66-79.
Garcia-Mila, T., & Mcguire, T. J. (1992). The Contribution of Publicly Provided Inputs to States Economies. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 22, 229-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(92)90013-Q
Guo, G. Z., Liu, R. G., & Huang, Z. Y. (2019). Cars on the Road: An Economic Growth Model of Road Infrastructure’s Effect on Consumption and Economic Growth. Economic Research Journal, 3, 166-180.
Holtz-Eakin, D., & Schwartz, A. E. (1995). Spatial Productivity Spillovers from Public Infrastructure: Evidence from State Highways. International Tax and Public Finance, 2, 459-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00872777
Huang, J. L., & Li, K. W. (2006). Export Openness, Regional Market Size and Economic Growth. Economic Research Journal, 6, 27-38.
Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS (2002). The Relationship between Infrastructure Investment and Manufacturing Industry Growth. Economic Research Journal, 2, 37-47.
Krugman, P. (1991). Increasing Return and Economic Geography. Journal of Political Economy, 99, 483-499. https://doi.org/10.1086/261763
Li, H., & Li, Z. G. (2009). Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Investment on Enterprise Inventory—An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises. Management World, 8, 73-80.
Limao, N., & Venables, A. J. (2001). Infrastructure, Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs and Trade. The World Bank Economic Review, 15, 451-479. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/15.3.451
Liu, B. L., Wu, P., & Liu, Y. H. (2010). Transportation Infrastructure and the Increase in TFP in China—Spatial Econometric Analysis on Provincial Panel Data. China Industrial Economics, 3, 54-64.
Liu, J. Y., & Fan, Z. Y. (2013). Effect Evaluation of China’s Property Tax Pilot: A Study Based on Synthetic Control Method. The Journal of World Economy, 11, 117-135.
Liu, N. Q., & Wu, Y. (2017). Can the Enlargement in Yangtze River Delta Boost Regional Economic Common Growth. China Industrial Economics, 6, 79-97.
Liu, S. L., & Hu, A. G. (2010). Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Perspective from China’s Regional Disparities. China Industrial Economics, 4, 14-23.
Liu, S. L., & Hu, A. G. (2011). Transportation Infrastructure and Regional Economic Integration in China. Economic Research Journal, 3, 72-82.
Liu, Y. (2010). Transport Infrastructure Investment, Regional Economic Growth and the Spatial Spillover Effects—Based on Highway and Marine’s Panel Data Analysis. China Industrial Economics, 12, 37-46.
Liu, Y. J., & Zeng, X. M. (2018). Research on the Influence of Industrial Transfer from the Property Taxes: Empirical Research from Chongqing and Shanghai. China Industrial Economics, 11, 98-116.
Liu, Z. H., & Wang, L. H. (2017). Research on Regional Economic Effect and Influence Mechanism of Transportation Infrastructure—Evidence from Zheng-Xi High-Speed Railway. Economic Science, 2, 32-46.
Nordas, H. K., & Piermartini, R. (2004). Infrastructure and Trade. Wto Staff Working Paper, No. Ersd-2004-04.
Pradhan, R. P., & Bagchi, T. P. (2013). Effect of Transportation Infrastructure on Economic Growth in India: the VECM Approach. Research in Transportation Economics, 38, 139-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.05.008
Ren, X. H., & Zhang, Z. Y. (2010). Spatial Econometric Analysis of Location Selection of Transportation Infrastructure and Manufacturing industry. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 10, 13-17.
Roberts, M., Deichmann, U., Fingleton, B., & Shi, T. (2012). Evaluating China’s Road to Prosperity: A New Economic Geography Approach. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 42, 580-594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2012.01.003
Sheng, D., Bao, Q., & Wang, Y. J. (2011). Influence of Infrastructure on the Export Behavior of Chinese Enterprises: “Intensive Margin” or “Extended Margin”. The Journal of World Economy, 1, 17-36.
Shi, Z. K., Shao, J., & Pu, Z. N. (2018). Effects of Quality Improvements in Transportation Infrastructure on Total Factor Productivity Growth: Evidence of Chinese Railway Speed Acceleration. The Journal of World Economy, 6, 127-151.
Tatom, J. A. (1991). Public Capital and Private Sector Performance. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 73, 3-15. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.73.3-15
Venables, A. J. (1996). Equilibrium Locations of Vertically Linked Industries. International Economic Review, 37, 341-359. https://doi.org/10.2307/2527327
Wang, R. F., & Wang, J. J. (2007). Infrastructure and China’s Economic Growth: Research Based on VAR Method. The Journal of World Economy, 3, 13-21.
Wang, X. B., & Nie, H. F. (2010). Administrative Division Adjustment and Economic Growth. Management World, 4, 42-53.
Yang, J. G., Zhou, L. L., & Zou, H. F. (2017). Evaluation of Economic Growth Effect Established in China’s Special Economic Zones—Based on Analysis of Synthetic Control Method. Economic Perspectives, 1, 41-51.
Zhang, H. R., & Yi, B. Z. (2012). Infrastructure, Space Overflow and Regional Total Factor Productivity—An Empirical Study Based on the Durbin Model of Spatial Panel in 266 Cities in China. Economist, 2, 61-67.
Zhang, X. L. (2007). Regional Comparative Analysis on the Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China. Journal of Finance and Economics, 8, 51-63.
Zhang, X. L. (2012). Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth—With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure. Social Sciences in China, 3, 60-77.
Zhang, X., Wang, X., Wan, G. H., & Sun, F. C. (2018). A Unified Framework of Road Infrastructure’s Growth Effect. Economic Research Journal, 1, 50-64.
Zhou, H., & Zheng, X. T. (2012). Quality of Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from China’s Railway Speeding Up. The Journal of World Economy, 1, 78-97.