Can Purchase Restrictions Really Limit House Prices

Abstract

This article uses the data of residential commercial housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities from 2007 to 2017, and on the basis of controlling the covariates that can affect housing prices on the demand side and the supply side. The method of double difference is used to study the two rounds of purchase restriction policies, that is, in 2010 , t he first round of purchase restriction policies promulgated by local governments from 20111 and the second round of purchase restrictions promulgated in 2016 have their respective effects on residential commercial housing prices and price growth rates. The regression results of the benchmark fixed-effects model show that the implementation of the first round of purchase restriction policies in cities can significantly reduce the price of residential commercial houses, and the long-term effects of the purchase restriction policies are relatively weak. Because there may be a certain reverse causality between the implementation of the purchase restriction policy and the city’s housing prices, this paper introduces the lag value of the explained variable as the instrumental variable of the purchase restriction policy, and uses the dynamic panel instrumental variable method to perform regression analysis. In addition, there may also be the problem of sample selection bias, that is, for the difference between the treatment group and the control group, this article first uses the propensity score matching method to determine the appropriate covariate, and then matches the treatment group to the appropriate control group, And finally perform double-difference regression analysis to reduce the bias of sample selectivity. In the analysis of heterogeneity, this paper divides the samples according to the different conditions of housing prices and housing price growth rates, and verifies whether there is a difference in the impact of the purchase restriction policy on the cities with excessively high housing prices, rapid housing prices, and high and rapid housing prices . At the same time, we will return to cities in the eastern, central and western regions to explore whether there are regional differences in the effect of the purchase restriction policy. Finally, through a series of robustness tests, the robustness of the conclusions of this article is demonstrated.