This study examined the effect of Crude Oil Fluctuation and the Nigerian economy: A resource-dependence approach covering a study period of 35 years (1984-2018). Variables used include Fluctuation in Oil Price per Barrel (FOBP), Diesel Pump Price Fluctuations (PPPF), Petrol Pump Price Fluctuations (DPPF), Kerosene Pump Price Fluctuation (KPPF), and Real GDP. The data were gotten from the CBN Statistical Bulletin, World Bank Report, and Oil Producing Exporting Countries Annual Report while it was analyzed using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model. Various diagnostic tests proved that the model is fit for the study. Accordingly, the trend analysis appears to cast doubts on whether crude oil fluctuation made significant contributions to the Nigerian economy. However, the Pearson correlation coefficient substantially attests to a strong linear relationship between the regressed and the regressors. Particularly, the individual results restated that in the short run only Fluctuation in Oil Price per Barrel (FOBP) improved the N igerian economy significantly. However, in the long run, both Fluctuation in Oil Price per Barrel (FOBP) and Kerosene Pump Price Fluctuation (KPPF) improve the Nigerian economy significantly. Hence we conclude that, if the N igerian economy must experience outstanding performance, both the private and public agencies should not interfere in the apex bank surveillance on the excess crude account. More so, the federal government should endeavor to industrialize the Nigerian economy.
Abdul-Rahamoh, O. A., Taiwo, F. H., & Adejere, A. T. (2013). The Analysis of the Effect of Petroleum Profit Tax on Nigerian Economy. Asian Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 1, 25-36.
Ademola, I. S., Olasode, O. S., Raji, O. A., & Adedoyin, A. O. (2015). Government Expenditure, Oil Revenue and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 3, 180-202.
Adugbo, D. (2016). Nigeria: Oil Price Fall—How the Mighty Are Crawling. Daily Trust. http://www.allafrica.com/stories/201601130544.html
Akinleye, S. O., & Ekpo, S. (2013). Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria. Economía Mexicana Nueva época, 1, 565-624.
Akinlo, A. E. (2012). How Important Is Oil in Nigeria’s Economic Growth? Journal of Sustainable Development, 5, 165-179. https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v5n4p165
Alley, I., Asekomeh, A., Mobolaji, H., & Adeniran, Y. A. (2014). Oil Price Shocks and the Nigerian Economy Growth. European Scientific Journal, 10, 375-391.
Amagoh, M. N., Odoh, C. M., & Okuh, B. A. (2014). Modelling Petroleum Product Prices and the Nigerian Economy. IOSR Journal of Mathematics (ISOR-JM), 10, 72-79. https://doi.org/10.9790/5728-10147279
Ani, W., Ugwunta, D., Inyiama, O., & Eneje, B. (2014). Oil Price Volatility and Economic Development: Stylized Evidence in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 6, 125-133. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2014.0572
Apere, O. T., & Ijeoma, A. M. (2013). Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Levels and Volatility in Nigeria. International Journal of Academics and Research in Economic for Management Sciences, 2, 15-25. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v2-i4/48
Aregbeyen, O., & Kolawole, B. O. (2015). Oil Revenue, Public Spending and Economic Growth Relationships in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development, 8, 113-123. https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v8n3p113
Aremo, A. G., Orisadare, M. A., & Ekperiware, C. M. (2012). Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Policy Management: Implication for Nigerian Economic Planning. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 1, 1121-1139.
Armando, F. D. (2009). Latin American Structuralism and Economic Theory. CEPAL Review, No. 98, 175-195. https://doi.org/10.18356/9e69f49e-en
Arnason, R. (2008). Natural Resource Rents: Theoretical Clarification. Working Paper Series W08:07, Paris: Institute of Economic Studies.
Baghebo, M., & Atima, T. O. (2013). The Impact of Petroleum on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Global Business and Economic Journal, 2, 102-115.
Ball, L., & Mankiw, N. G. (1995). Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 161-193. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118514
Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2016). Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30, 139-160. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.1.139
CBN (2014). Statistical Bulletin (Vol. 21). Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Charfeddine, L., Klein, T., & Walther, T. (2018). Oil Price Changes and US Real GDP Growth: Is This Time Different (p. 1)? Working Paper Version 2.0. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3222572
Corden, W. M., & Neary, J. P. (1982). Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy. Economic Journal, 92, 825-848. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232670
Donwa, P. A., Mgbame, C. O., & Onyeoweni, S. I. (2015). Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth: Conceptual Perspective. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, 2, 80-85.
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) (2011). Guidance on the Preparation on the EIA. https://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/pdf/EIA_guidance_EIA_report_final.pdf
Fischer, S. (1985). Supply Shock, Wage Stickiness and Accommodation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 17, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992502
Husain, A. M., Arezki, R., Breuer, P., Haksar, V., Thomas, H., Paulo, M. A., & Martin, S. (2015). Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513532417.006 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/ 2016/12/31/Global-Implications-of-Lower-Oil-Prices-43052
Ijirshar, V. U. (2015). The Empirical Analysis of Oil Revenue and Industrial Growth in Nigeria. African Journal of Business Management, 9, 599-607. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJBM2015.7801
IMF (2016). International Monetary Fund Economic Report: Africa Focus. Special Issue, No. 49, 1-29. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399746.002
Ismail, K. (2021). The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch disease’: the Case of Oil Exporting Countries. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/The-Structural- Manifestation-of-the-Dutch-Disease-The-Case-of-Oil-Exporting-Countries-23801
Keji, S. A. (2018). An Empirical Nexus between Oil Price Collapse and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Oil Based Economies. Journal Perspektif Penbiayaandau Pembangunan Daerah, 5, 300-313.
Krueger, A. O. (1974). The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society. The American Economic Review, 64, 291-303.
Lee, K., Ni, S., & Ratti, R. A. (1995). Oil Shocks and the Macro-Economy: The Role of Price Variability. Energy Journal, 16, 39-56. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No4-2
Manasseh, C. O., Abada, F. O., Ogbuabo, F. O., Okoro E. U., Egele, A. J., & Ozuzu, K. E. (2019). Oil Price Fluctuation, Oil Revenue and Well-Being in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9, 346-355.
Mustapha, S. A., & Sulaiman, L. A. (2015). Estimating the Critical Bands for Nigeria’s Crude Oil Price and Production: Evidence from GARCH Models and Internal Adjustments. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 573-585. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01270-8
Nwanna, I. O., & Eyedayi, A. M. (2016). Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2014). IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 18, 10-19.
Nwaoha, W. C., Onwuka, O. O., Ejem, C. A., Obisike, N. E., & Ogbuewu, K. J. (2018). Movements of Petroleum Pump Prices and Standard of Living: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research, 4, 57-67.
Nwosa, P. I., & Ajibola, A. A. (2013). The Effect of Gasoline Price on Economic Sectors in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3, 99-110.
Ocheni, S. I. (2015). Impact of Fuel Price Increase on the Nigerian Economy. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6, 560-569. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n1s1p560
Ogbonna, G. N., & Appah, E. (2012). Petroleum Income and Nigerian Economy: Empirical Evidence. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 1, 33-59. https://doi.org/10.12816/0002159
Ogbonna, G. N., & Orlu, R. N. (2017). The Impact of Domestic Pricing of Petrol on Economic Growth of Nigeria (1970-2013). Global Journal of Social Sciences, 16, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.4314/gjss.v16i1.1
Ogiri, H. I., Amadi, S. N., Uddin, M. M., & Dubon, P. (2013). Oil Prices and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis. American Journal of Social and Management Sciences, 4, 20-41.
Okonkwo, I. V., & Mojekwu, K. O. (2018). Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Nigeria Economic Growth: 1997-2015. International Journal of Research in Business, Economics and Management, 2, 48-61.
Okonkwo, I. V., & Ogbonna, M. K. (2018). Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Nigeria Economic Growth: 1997-2015. International Journal of Research in Business, Economics and Management, 2, 44-61.
Oyeyemi, A. M. (2013). The Growth Implications of Oil Price Shock in Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4, 343-349.
Pindyck, R. S. (1979). The Structure of World Energy Demand Cambridge. MIT Press.
Rentschler, J. E. (2013). Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energies. Policy Research Working Paper 6603, Washington DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6603
Ross, M. (2001). Timber Booms and Institutional Breakdown in Southeast Asia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511510359
Salim, R., & Rafiq, S. (2013). The Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Selected Asian Emerging Economies. Journal of Development Economics, 51, 1-33.
Sommer, M. (2002). Supply Shocks and Persistence of Inflation. Economics Working Paper Archive 485, Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics.
Udoh, M. D. (2014). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Oil Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Research on Humanities and Social Sciences, 4, 1-10.
Udoka, C. O., & Nkamare, S. E. (2014). The Implication of Crude Oil Glut on the Performance of the Nigeria Capital Market. Journal of Business Management, 18, 11-23.
Ujunwa, A. (2015). Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Oil Price Shock in Nigeria: Persistent or Transitory. Nsukka: Department Banking and Finance, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus.
Usman, A., Madu, I., & Abdullahi, F. (2015). Evidence of Petroleum Resources on Nigerian Economic Development (2000-2009). Business Economics Journal, 6, 2. https://doi.org/10.4172/2151-6219.1000149
World Bank (2015). World Development Indicators. Washington DC: World Bank.
Zied, F., Khaled, G., Frédéric, T., & Slim, C. (2016). Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Selected OPEC Countries. The Journal of Applied Business Research, 32, 1-22.