Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Forecasting CPI and PPI Using Commodity Prices and Crude Oil Prices: A Comparison of China and United States
Chengdu Tianfu School, Chengdu, China
Chengdu Tianfu School, Chengdu, China
School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
- 1 Chengdu Tianfu School, Chengdu, China
- 2 Chengdu Tianfu School, Chengdu, China
- 3 School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
Modern Economy·Volume 15 (2024)·Pages 1063–1072·Published 1 November 2024·DOI10.4236/me.2024.1511055
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Abstract
This paper examines the forecasting of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) using commodity price index and crude oil price, focusing on a comparison between China and the United States. Using an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous variables and a rolling window extrapolation method, we analyze data from July 2018 to December 2023. The results show that CPI forecasting consistently outperforms PPI forecasting in both nations. Additionally, both commodity price index and crude oil price enhance CPI and PPI forecasts. Crude oil futures prices significantly improve CPI predictions, while commodity price indices benefit PPI forecasts. Furthermore, WTI crude oil futures outperform INE crude oil futures in forecasting CPI for both China and the United States.
KeywordsCPI ForecastingPPI ForecastingCommodity PricesCrude Oil PricesChinaUnited States
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