Real Options Theory in Venture Capital: Case Analyses of Moderna, CureVac, Meituan, and ofo

Abstract

This paper applies Real Options Theory (ROT) to analyze venture capital (VC) decision-making under uncertainty, reframing financing rounds, staged commitments, and exit timing as embedded options. Using a comparative case study of four ventures—Moderna, CureVac, Meituan, and ofo—the analysis contrasts deep-tech and replication-based models to show how timing and optionality drive divergent outcomes. The findings generate a novel typology: deep-tech ventures reward long-horizon growth and deferred exit strategies, while replication ventures require timely exercise or abandonment to avoid rapid value erosion. This typology underscores the practical importance of aligning fund structures with venture volatility, offering a theory-driven lens for capital-efficient growth and the disciplined management of high-risk innovation portfolios.