Modeling Path Dependence in Jordan’s Water-Energy Nexus: The Geo-Institutional Proxy Analysis (GIPA) Framework

Abstract

This research investigates the systemic drivers of policy resistance within Jordan’s Water-Energy nexus. It aims to quantify how macroeconomic fiscal constraints—termed here as the “Structural Fiscal Veto”—translate into technical operational deficits, necessitating a strategic shift toward domestic technical resilience. The study introduces the original Geo-Institutional Proxy Analysis (GIPA) framework, utilizing verifiable financial metrics as quantifiable proxies for institutional capacity. A System Dynamics model is developed to map the interplay of legacy fiscal burdens and innovation cycles, utilizing the “Shifting the Burden” archetype to evaluate the transition from donor-dependency to self-sustaining modernization. Empirical application of the GIPA framework to baseline data (2022-2025) yields an Innovation Allocation Efficiency Index of ~14.43. This diagnostic value reveals an “Innovation Trap”, where fiscal structures are predominantly oriented toward administrative sustainability, leaving technical modernization vulnerable to external funding fluctuations. The results highlight the precariousness of relying on external grants for up to 80% of research operations, as evidenced by the 2025 JD 257 million liquidity shock. To break the self-reinforcing loops of dependency, the study proposes a shift toward Output-Based Financing and Technical Sovereignty. Key recommendations for 2026-2030 include establishing a centralized WEFE Nexus Authority and integrating a “Solar-Rail Backbone” to stabilize the operational baseline. By targeting these deep leverage points, Jordan can decouple its strategic infrastructure projects, such as the National Conveyance Project, from external shocks and transform its globally superior scientific output into a catalyst for self-reliant technological leadership.