Despite the seven-year implementation of three adjustment programs to address the sovereign debt crisis, the Greek economy is still in a prolonged recession and faces problems of competitiveness, political stability and social cohesion. At the same time, the fiscal adjustment policy did not solve the original problem of public debt. On the contrary, as recent evidence shows, the country’s ability to service its debt has deteriorated. The causes of the crisis and the failure of the selected economic stabilization policies are a multidimensional and interrelated complex. The Greek economy has supported its growth in recent decades mainly in domestic consumption, with little presence in areas with high added value and extrovert features, focusing mainly on traditional business sectors with limited innovation characteristics. Ι n this study we will try on reasonable arguments but also with a series of statistical data and indicators from sources such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Greek authorities to analyze the course of the Greek economy, evaluate the results of the selected policies and to formulate appropriate policy proposals.
KeywordsEffectivenessGreek Economy
IMF (2017) Greece Ex-Post Evaluation Access under the 2012 Extended Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece. IMF Country Report No. 17/44, Washington DC.
IMF (2017) Greece 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece. IMF Country Report No. 17/40, Washington DC.
Pelagidis, T. and Mitsopoulos, M. (2016) Who’s to Blame for Greece? Austerity in Charge of Saving a Broken Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
Ioannides, Y.M. and Pissarides, A.C. (2015) Is the Greek Debt Crisis One of Supply or Demand? https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/is-the-greek-debt-crisis-one-of-supply-or-demand/
Thomsen, P. (2016) Greece: Toward a Workable Program. IMF Direct. https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2016/02/11/greece-toward-a-workable-program/
Sinn, H.-W. (2015) The Greek Tragedy. https://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/publications/journals/ CESifo-Forum/Archiv/CESifo-Forum-2015.html
Papadimitriou, D.B., Nikiforos, M. and Zezza, G. (2013) The Greek Economic Crisis and the Experience of Austerity: A Strategic Analysis. http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/sa_gr_7_13.pdf
Papadimitriou, D.B., Nikiforos, M. and Zezza, G. (2014) Prospects and Policies for the Greek Economy. http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/sa_2_14.pdf
Niemeier, Ε. (2016) Rettungsprogramme für Krisenlander verscharften die Krise—eine Replik. Wirtschaftsdienst, 96, 64-71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-016-1927-y
Meghir, C., Pisarides, C., Vayanos, D. and Vetas, N. (2017) Beyond Austerity: Reforming the Greek Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge MA.
Brenke, K. (2012) Die griechische Wirtschaft braucht eine Wachstumsstrategie. DIW Wochenbericht, 5, 3-15.
Haliassos, M. (2015) Greece: Are We Missing the Reform Opportunity of the Crisis? http://voxeu.org/article/greece-seizing-crisis-s-reform-opportunities
Gligorov, V. (2016) The Transfer and Adjustment Problems in the Balkans. Thewiiw Balkan Observatory, Working Papers 125, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Vienna.
Kritikos, Α. (2014) Griechenland: Ohne den Aufbau eines Innovationssystems wird es nicht gehen. DIW Wochenbericht, 39, 907-914.
Sklias, P. and Maris, G. (2013) The Political Dimension of the Greek Financial Crisis. Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 14, 144-164. https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2012.732392
Michas, T. (2011) Putting Politics above Markets: Historical Background to the Greek Debt Crisis. Cato Working Paper Cato Institute, Washington DC.
Kotios, A., Galanos, G. and Pavlidis, G. (2011) Greece and the Euro: The Chronicle of an Expected Collapse. Intereconomics, Review of International Trade and Development, 46, 263-269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-011-0390-7
Arghyrou, M.G. (2015) On Greek Crisis, Growth, Market-Access and Debt Forgiveness. CESifo DICE Report, 1, 33-38.
Galenianos, M. (2015) The Greek Crisis: Origins and Implications. Crisis Observatory Research Paper No 16, Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), Athens.
Roukanas, S.A. and Sklias, P.G. (2017) The Greek Political Economy 2000-2015. Eburon, Delft.
European Commission (2010) The Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece. European Economy Occasional Papers No 61, Brussels.
European Commission (2012) The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece. European Economy Occasional Papers No 94, Brussels.
European Commission (2015) Third Memorandum of Understanding. http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/greecedoc.pdf
European Commission (2016) Supplemental Memorandum of Understanding. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/assistance_eu_ms/greek_loan_facility/pdf/smou_en.pdf
Kotios, A. and Roukanas, S. (2013) The Greek Crisis and the Crisis in Eurozone’s Governance. In: Greece’s Horizons, Springer, Berlin, 91-105. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34534-0_8
Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M. (1996) Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3, 67-103.
Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1997) Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 44, 210-248. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867543
Kotios, A., Galanos, G., Plymakis, S. and Roukanas, S. (2015) The Vicious Circles of Recession and Development Prospects. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 63-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00008-8
Heimberger, P. (2016) Did Fiscal Consolidation Cause the Double-Dip Recession in the Euro Area? Working Paper 130, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Vienna.
Hanzl-Weiss, D. and Landesmann, M. (2016) Correcting External Imbalances in the European Economy. Research Report 410, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Vienna.
Gros, D. (2015) Where Is the Credit Crunch in Greece? CEPS Commentary. https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/CEPS%20Commentary%20Credit%20Crunch%20Greece%20D%20Gros_0.pdf
Transparency International (2015) Corruption Perceptions Index 2015. https://www.transparency.org/cpi2015/
World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2001-2016. https://www.weforum.org/
World Bank (2016) Ease of Doing Business Report 2016. http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/WBG/DoingBusiness/Documents/Annual-Reports /English/DB16-Full-Report.pdf
IMF (2017) Greece Selected Issues. IMF Country Report No. 17/41, Washington DC.
Ernst & Young (2016) Tax Evasion in Greece (In Greek). http://www.dianeosis.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/06/tex_evasion_version_240616_2.pdf
Panageas, S. and Tinios, P. (2015) Pensions: Arresting a Race to the Bottom. In: Meghir, C., Pissarides, C., Vayanos, D. and Vettas, N., Eds., Crisis in the Euro Zone: Policy Options for Greece, MIT Press, Cambridge.
Tinios, P. (2016) Greek Pension Reform Once Again: Explaining Its Logic and Issues. http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/hellenicObservatory/CMS%20pdf/HO% 20staff%20in%20Prees/BRIEFING-NOTE-PT.pdf
Poufinas, T. and Kouskouna, E. (2016) Rearranging Social Security Contributions: Alleviating the Burden of the State and Returning Value to the State and the Society, A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy: Requirements for Long-Term Sustainability. Palgrave-Macmillan, London, 201-224.
Poufinas, T. and Kouskouna, E. (2017) On the Split of Social Security Contributions between Funded and Pay-As-You-Go Pension Schemes; Contribution to Growth. The Greek Debt Crisis—In Quest of Growth in Times of Austerity. Palgrave-Macmillan, London, 129-152. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59102-5_5
Bitzenis, Α., Vlachos, V. and Schneider, F. (2016) An Exploration of the Greek Shadow Economy: Can Its Transfer into the Official Economy Provide Economic Relief Amid the Crisis? Journal of Economic Issues, 50, 165-196.
Schneider, Fr. (2015) Tax Evasion, Shadow Economy and Corruption in Greece and Other OECD Countries: Some Empirical Facts. http://www.amcham.gr/wpcontent/uploads/2015/taxspeeches/friedrich%20schneider.pdf
Artavanis, N.T., Morse, A. and Tsoutsoura, M. (2015) Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131, 739-798. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw009
UNCTAD (2016) World Investment Report 2016. http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2016_en.pdf
McKinsey & Company (2012) Greece 10 Years Ahead, Defining Greece’s New Growth Model and Strategy. McKinsey & Company, Athens.