This study analyses the cointegration and the causal relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions, using aggregate and disaggregate measures of energy consumption for Algeria, Egypt and South Africa over the period 1971-2015. Based on the ARDL, our results show that aggregate energy consumption and economic growth have positive and significant impacts on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) both in the long and short run in those countries. At the disaggregated level, the main energy-related drives of carbon emissions are oil, electricity and coal consumption in Algeria, Egypt and South Africa, respectively. In addition, the implementation of the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality reveals the existence of several types of relationship between CO 2 emissions, economic growth and energy consumption.
KeywordsEnergy ConsumptionEconomic GrowthCarbon EmissionsARDL ApproachToda-Yamamoto Test
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Meyer, L.A., Eds., IPCC, Geneva, 151.
Nordhaus, W. and Boyer, J. (2000) Warming the World: Economic Models of Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/7158.001.0001
Hope, C. (2009) How Deep Should the Deep Cuts Be? Optimal CO 2 Emissions over Time under Uncertainty. Climate Policy, 9, 3-8. https://doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2008.0544
Grossman, G. and Krueger, A. (1991) Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper, No. 3914, Washington DC.
Shafik, N. and Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992) Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Times Series and Cross-Country Evidence. Background Paper for the World Development Report, The World Bank, Washington DC.
Panayotou, T. (1993) Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. Working Paper WP238 Technology and Employment Programme, International Labor Office, Geneva.
Kuznets, S. (1955) Economic Growth and Income Equality. American Economic Review, 45, 1-28.
Dinda, S. (2004) Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey. Ecological Economics, 49, 431-455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.011
Kaika, D. and Zervas, E. (2013) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory—Part A: Concept, Causes and the CO 2 Emissions Case. Energy Policy, 1-11.
IEA (2017) CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2-emissions- from-fuel-combustion-highlights-2017.html
IEA (2013) World Energy Outlook 2013. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2013.pdf
Ang, J.B. (2007) CO 2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Output in France. Energy Policy, 35, 4772-4778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.032
Boutabba, M.A. (2014) The Impact of Financial Development, Income, Energy and Trade on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from the Indian Economy. Economic Modelling, 40, 33-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.005
Heidari, H., Katircioglu, S.T. and Saeidpour, L. (2015) Economic Growth, CO 2 Emissions, and Energy Consumption in the Five ASEAN Countries. Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 64, 785-791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2014.07.081
Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J. and Mohd, S. (2016) Environmental Kuznets Curve and Energy Consumption in Malaysia: A Cointegration Approach. Energy Sources, Part B, Planning, and Policy, 11, 861-867. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2012.662264
Halicioglu, F. (2009) An Econometric Study of CO 2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 39, 1156-1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012
Shafiei, S. and Salim, R.A. (2013) Non-Renewable and Renewable Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. Energy Policy, 66, 547-556.
Akpan, G.E. and Akpan, U.F. (2012) Electricity Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2, 292-306.
Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A.K. and Nasir, M. (2013) The Effects of Financial Development, Economic Growth, Coal Consumption and Trade Openness on CO 2 Emissions in South Africa. Energy Policy, 61, 1452-1459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.006
Jebli, M.B., Youssef, S.B. and Ozturk, I. (2015) The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption and Trade: Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa Countries. African Development Review, 27, 288-300. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12147
Nkengfack, H. and Kaffo, H.F. (2015) Effects of Economic Growth on CO 2 Emissions in the “Congo Basin” Countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7, 107-117.
Bouznit, M. and Pablo-Romero, M.P. (2016) CO 2 Emission and Economic Growth in Algeria. Energy Policy, 96, 93-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.036
Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995) Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
Zerbo, E. (2017) Income-Environment Relationship in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Further Evidence with Trade Openness. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24, 16488-16502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9303-z
Ahmad, A., Zhao, Y., Shahbaz, M., Bano, S., Zhang, Z., Wang, S. and Liu, Y. (2016) Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis of the Indian Economy. Energy Policy, 96, 131-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.032
Farhani, S., Chaibi, A. and Rault, C. (2014) CO 2 Emissions, Output, Energy Consumption, and Trade in Tunisia. Economic Modelling, 38, 426-434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.025
Soytas, U., Sari, R. and Ewing, B.T. (2007) Energy Consumption, Income, and Carbon Emissions in the United States. Ecological Economics, 62, 482-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.07.009
Lean, H.H. and Smyth, R. (2010) CO 2 Emissions, Electricity Consumption and Output in ASEAN. Applied Energy, 87, 1858-1864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.02.003
Liu, X., Zhang, S. and Bae, J. (2017) The Nexus of Renewable Energy-Agriculture-Environment in BRICS. Applied Energy, 204, 489-496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.07.077
Paweenawat, S.W. and Plyngam, S. (2017) Does the Causal Relationship between Renewable Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emissions, and Economic Growth Exist in Thailand? An ARDL Approach. Economics Bulletin, 37, 697-711.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2017). https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
World Bank (2017) World Development Indicator 2017. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog
Ehrlich, P.R. and Holdren, J. (1971) Impact of Population Growth. Science, 171, 1212-1217. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212
Dietz, T. and Rosa, E.A. (1994) Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology. Human Ecology Review, 1, 277-300.
Lv, Z. (2017) The Effect of Democracy on CO 2 Emissions in Emerging Countries: Does the Level of Income Matter? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72, 900-906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.096
Sharaf, M.F. (2017) Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Egypt: A Disaggregated Causality Analysis with Structural Breaks. Régionet Développement, 46, 59-76.
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K (1992) Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10, 251-270.
Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1999) An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In: Strom, S., Ed., Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Chapter 11. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. (2001) Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Harris, R. and Sollis, R. (2003) Applied Time Series Modeling and Forecasting. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 302 p.
Lin, S., Zhao, D. and Marinova, D. (2009) Analysis of the Environmental Impact of China Based on STIRPAT Model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 29, 341-347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2009.01.009
Chen, W. and Lei, Y. (2018) The Impacts of Renewable Energy and Technological Innovation on Environment-Energy-Growth Nexus: New Evidence from a Panel Quantile Regression. Renewable Energy, 123, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.026
Inglesi-Lotz, R. and Dogan, E. (2018) The Role of Renewable versus Non-Renewable Energy to the Level of CO 2 Emissions: A Panel Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Big 10 Electricity Generators. Renewable Energy, 123, 36-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.041
He, Z., Xu, S., Shen, W., Long, R. and Chen, H. (2017) Impact of Urbanization on Energy-Related CO 2 Emission at Different Development Levels: Regional Difference in China Based on Panel Estimation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 140, 1719-1730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.155