Local Government Debt Limit: Forecast and Management

Abstract

This paper uses the method of Zsg-dea to measure the debt limit of 31 regions of China in 2017 years. Through 3 iterations and adjustments, it is concluded that 31 regions have reached the optimal debt limit adjustment of DEA effective, and found that there is obvious regional nature of the limit adjustment in various provinces. The regional increase in northeast and northwest China is relatively small, under 30 billion, and then Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other coastal cities with better economic development, the debt adjustment is relatively large, in more than 80 billion. At the same time, Guizhou, Liaoning due to the low borrowing efficiency, the reduction is relatively large, there is a debt risk. This paper further puts forward some suggestions on the reform of China’s debt limit management system, which provides some reference value for the future reform of the financial system.