The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha 1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034 and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is better if knowing them in advance.
Keywords1929-19371981-1987 and 2008-2016 Shipping DepressionsZannetos ParadoxForecasting Shipping DepressionsV-StatisticHurst ExponentAlpha CoefficientRescaled Range AnalysisRadial Basis Functions
Casdagli, M. (1989) Nonlinear Prediction of Chaotic Time Series. Physica D, 35, 335-356. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(89)90074-2
NLTSA (2000) Computer Program Suitable for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis, Due to Siriopoulos, K. and Leontitsis, A. Anikoula Publications, Thessaloniki. (In Greek)
Stopford, M. (2009) Maritime Economics. 3rd Edition, Routledge, London. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203891742
Stokes, P. (1997) Ship Finance: Credit Expansion and the Boom-Bust Cycle. LLP, London.
McConville, J. (1999) Economics of Maritime Transport. The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers, London.
Mandelbrot, B.B. and Hudson, R. (2006) The (Mis) Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward. Basic Books, New York.
Soros, G. (1998) The Crisis of Global Capitalism. Livanis Publications, Athens. (In Greek)
Soros, G. (2008) The New Paradigm for Financial Markets. Livanis Publications, Athens. (In Greek)
Goulielmos, A.M. (2009) Is History Repeated? Cycles and Recessions in Shipping Markets, 1929 and 2008. Shipping and Transport Logistics, 1, 329-360. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSTL.2009.027679
Goulielmos, A.M. (2012) Long-Term Forecasting of BFI Using Chaos Cycle Theory and Maritime Technical Analysis. Global Advanced Research Journal of Social Science, 1, 118-135.
Engelen, S., Norouzzadeh, P., Dullaert, W. and Rahmani, B. (2010) Multifractal Features of Spot Rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas Shipping Market. Energy Economics, 33, 88-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.05.009
Kantelhardt, J.W., Zschiegner, S.A., Bunde, E.K. and Stanley, H.E. (2002) Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Non-Stationary Time Series. Physica A, 316, 87-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01383-3
Stiglitz, J.E. (2011) The Triumph of Greed. Papadopoulos Editions, Athens. (In Greek)
Goulielmos, A.M. and Psifia, M.-E. (2011) Forecasting Short-Term Freight Rate Cycles: Do We Have a More Appropriate Method than Normal Distribution? Maritime Policy and Management, 38, 645-672. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673
Jiang, S. (2015) More Evidence against the Random Walk Hypothesis. World Scientific, Singapore.
Goulielmos, A.M. (2013) Keynes Economics of Depression: The Shipping Industry as a Case-Study. Journal of Research in Economics and International Finance, 2, 13-28. http://www.interesjournals.org/JREIF
Zheng, S. and Lan, X. (2016) Multifractal Analysis of Spot Rates in Tanker Markets and Their Comparisons with Crude Oil Markets. Physica A, 444, 547-559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.10.061
Goulielmos, A.M. (2018) Time and Equilibrium: Two Important, But Invisible, Concepts of Economics, with Application to Shipping Industry. Modern Economy, 9, 536-561.
Goulielmos, A.M. (2018) The Unresolved Issues in Maritime Economics. Modern Economy, 9, 1687-1715. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2018.910107
Koopmans, T. (1939) Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building: An Analysis of Cyclical Fluctuations. Haarlem-De Erven F Bohn NV, Holland.
Couper, A.D., et al. (1999) Voyages of Abuse: Seafarers, Human Rights and International Shipping. Pluto Press, London.
Peters, E.E. (1994) Fractal Market Analysis: Applying Chaos Theory to Investment and Economics. A Wiley Finance Edition, New York.
Hurst, H.E. (1951) The Long-Term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 116, 770-779.
Steeb, W.-H. (2015) The Nonlinear Workbook. 6th Edition, World Scientific, Singapore.
Einstein, A. (1905) A New Determination of the Required, by the Kinetic-Molecule Theory of Heat, Movement of Small Particles Moving inside Stagnant Liquids. Annals of Physics, 322.
Mandelbrot, B. (1964) The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. In: Cootner, P., Ed., The Random Character of Stock Prices, MIT Press, Cambridge, 369-412.
Fama, E.F. (1965) Portfolio Analysis in a Stable Paretian Market. Management Science, 11, 404-419. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.3.404
Asian Shipping (1985) No More Information Is Known.
Gardiner, N. (1985) Tanker Scrapping-1985 Not Likely to Be the Record Year Required. Asian Shipping, April, 28-30.
Lloyds Shipping Economist (1986) Not in Circulation.
Grieg J and Co. (2013) Annual Market Report 2012.
Goulielmos, A.M. (2007) Finance for Shipping Companies. 2nd Edition, Stamoulis Publications, Athens-Piraeus. (In Greek)
Zannetos, Z. (1966) The Theory of Oil Tankship Rates. MIT Press, Cambridge.
Kondratieff, N.D. and Stolper, W.F. (1935) The Long Waves in Economic Life. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 17, 105-115. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928486
Goulielmos, A.M. (2017) The “Kondratieff Cycles” in Shipping Economy since 1741 and till 2016. Modern Economy, 8, 308-332. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2017.82022
Hampton, M.J. (1990) Long and Short Shipping Cycles: The Rhythms and Psychology of Shipping Markets. 2nd Edition, A Cambridge Academy of Transport Monograph, Cambridge.
Hampton, M.J. (1991) Long and Short Shipping Cycles. 3rd Edition, Cambridge Academy of Transport, Cambridge.
Goulielmos, A.M. and Goulielmos, M.A. (2009) The Problem of Timing in Decisions to Buy or to Charter a Vessel. Transport Economics, 36, 261-286.
Goulielmos, A.M. and Psifia, M.-E. (2006) Shipping Finance: Time to Follow a New Track? Maritime Policy and Management, 36, 411-436. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088830903187150
Goulielmos, A.M. (2017) The Great Achievements of Greek-Owned Shipping (1946-2017) and Keynes’ Animal Spirits. Modern Economy, 8, 1186-1210. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2017.810082