An Earth System Analysis of Jordanian Agriculture: From Vicious Cycles of Resource Degradation to Integrated Resilience Pathways

Abstract

This paper applies the interdisciplinary framework of Earth System Science (ESS) to analyze the complex socio-ecological crisis facing the agricultural sector in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. As one of the world’s most water-scarce nations, with per capita renewable freshwater availability falling below the absolute scarcity threshold (61 m 3 /year), Jordan provides a critical model for understanding the detrimental impacts of anthropospheric pressures on resource systems in arid environments. The methodology employs qualitative systems analysis, integrating newly available biophysical data (2019-2023 water budgets) with a critical review of national policy documents, utilizing Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) to visualize systemic drivers. Key findings reveal a state of systemic overshoot driven by two dominant, interlinked, and self-reinforcing negative feedback cycles: the Water-Land Degradation Loop (R1), characterized by the “Efficiency Trap” (Jevons Paradox) where technological efficiency drives expansion rather than conservation; and the Water-Energy-Economy Drain Loop (R2), where energy-intensive deep pumping and high rates of non-revenue water (~47%) perpetuate fiscal and resource stress. These cycles persist due to a structural challenge in cross-sectoral governance, exemplified by the non-operationalization of the mandated Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) Nexus Council. The paper concludes by proposing quantifiable, integrated policy pathways—focusing on strict water demand enforcement, decoupling energy subsidies from consumption, and activating the Nexus Council—as essential structural leverage points to break these vicious cycles and shift the system from “Hard Path” dependency toward genuine Earth System stewardship.