Linear Panel Data and Farming Cash Flow Analyses to Assess the Causes of Deforestation in the Upper Guinean Forest: Data and Evidence from the Prefectures of the Central Region in Togo

Abstract

We present a careful quantitative description of land use in central Togo, by constructing farm budgets and analyzing time series data on agricultural production in four prefectures over the time period from 1996 to 2015. One key finding is that higher prices for chemical inputs are associated with more deforestation (as proxied by area in yam production), and correspondingly, greater quantities of chemical inputs applied are associated with less deforestation. This confirms that chemical fertilizers and forest clearing are substitutes and suggests that one path to reducing deforestation is to increase agricultural productivity, and to provide farmer with agricultural risk assistance that covers the farming negative externality costs. This risk assistance may include the coverage for the environmental deterioration costs, and the subsidies to compensate for investments’ cost.