Multi-parametric analysis for forecasting volcanic and seismic phenomena

Abstract

The history of the Etna volcano (Sicily) is marked by the alternation of brief intervals of eruptive activity and long periods of apparent inactivity. Usually during the periods of pseudo-inactivity, there are evident symptoms that the volcano is still active, e.g. fumaroles, hot springs and gaseous emissions. The variation of previous phenomena may be used to forecast seismic and volcanic- events. The aim of the research has been to evaluate and analyze the variation in emissions of ultra fine dusts and in soil Radon concentration, during the period of pseudo-inactivity, to obtain indexes able to forecast the possible events. Investigations have been carried out near two active faults on the slopes of Mt. Etna. The present paper presents the results of the monitoring survey, the analysis methodology and the development of the index to forecast possible seismic event. Research is currently in progress to refine the index which could be utilized not only to forecast possible seismic volcanic events, but also as a key to give early warning to the Civil Protection Agency so that they may be ready in time as soon as an eruptive event will occur.