A cost-optimal scenario of CO2 sequestration in a carbon-constrained world through to 2050
- 1 Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract
In this paper, a regionally disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the whole chain of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) is used to derive the cost-optimal global pattern of CO 2 sequestration in regional detail over the period 2010-2050 under the target of halving global energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2050 compared to the 2005 level. The major conclusions are the following. First, enhanced coalbed methane recovery will become a key early opportunity for CO 2 sequestration, so coalrich regions such as the US, China, and India will play a leading role in global CO 2 sequestration. Enhanced oil recovery will also have a participation in global CO 2 sequestration from the initial stage of CCS deployment, which may be applied mainly in China, southeastern Asia, and West Africa in 2030 and mainly in the Middle East in 2050. Second, CO 2 sequestration will be carried out in an increasing number of world regions over time. In particular, CCS will be deployed extensively in today’s developing countries. Third, an increasing amount of the captured CO 2 will be stored in aquifers in many parts of the world due to their abundant and widespread availability and their low cost. It is shown that the share of aquifers in global CO 2 sequestration reaches 82.0% in 2050.
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