How soon would the next mega-earthquake occur in Japan?

Abstract

The problem of seismic danger estimate in Japan after Tohoku mega-earthquake 11 March of 2011 is considered. The estimates are based on processing low-frequency seismic noise wave-forms from broadband network F-net. A new method of dynamic estimate of seismic danger is used for this problem. The method is based on calculating multi-fractal properties and minimum entropy of squared orthogonal wavelet coefficients for seismic noise. The analysis of the data using notion of “spots of seismic danger” shows that the seismic danger in Japan remains at high level after 2011. 03. 11 within north-east part of Philippine plate—at the region of Nankai Though which traditionally is regarded as the place of strongest earthquakes. It is well known that estimate of time moment of future shock is the most difficult problem in earthquake prediction. In this paper we try to find some peculiarities of the seismic noise data which could extract future danger time interval by analogy with the behavior before Tohoku earthquake. Two possible precursors of this type were found. They are the results of estimates within 1-year moving time window: based on correlation between 2 mean multi-fractal parameters of the noise and based on cluster analysis of annual clouds of 4 mean noise parameters. Both peculiarities of the noise data extract time interval 2013-2014 as the danger.