This study assesses the climate change resilience of Kangundo Road, Nairobi, using an integrated modelling approach combining hydrological, geotechnical, and thermal analyses within the Fisher Climate Model framework. Historical climate data and future projections under SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5 scenarios were used to evaluate the influence of precipitation variability, temperature change, and extreme events on road performance. Statistical results show rainfall variability (mean 77.761 mm, SD 201.410 mm) as the dominant hazard driver, with α Sea level , a rainfall proxy, weighted at 0.9967, compared to α Temperature at 0.0027, reflecting low thermal variability (mean 18.70˚C, SD 0.627˚C). Sensitivity analysis revealed drainage deterioration ( R ) and hydrological flow ( Q flow ) as the most critical resilience determinants, with their exclusion reducing resilience scores by over 80% and 55%, respectively. Interaction between R and thermal expansion (Δ L ) produced non-linear risk escalation, indicating that multi-hazard impacts accelerate vulnerability beyond single-hazard effects. Grey engineering measures, including reinforced culverts, elevated embankments, and thermally resistant pavements, combined with green infrastructure such as bioswales, vegetative buffers, and permeable pavements, offer optimal resilience. The findings emphasize prioritizing drainage and stormwater capacity in adaptation planning, while incorporating thermally adaptive materials for long-term durability. Limitations include reliance on model-based projections and focus on a single corridor, warranting expansion to multi-route, socio-economic, and governance-integrated resilience assessments.
Mohideen, R. (2021) Technology for Social Well-Being: Strengthening Urban Resilience in Developing Countries Integrating Infrastructure, Energy, Health and Social Inclusion. 2021 IEEE Conference on Norbert Wiener in the 21 st Century (21 CW ), Chennai, 22-25 July 2021, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1109/21cw48944.2021.9532527
Mahmood, S., Misra, P., Sun, H., Luqman, A. and Papa, A. (2024) Sustainable Infrastructure, Energy Projects, and Economic Growth: Mediating Role of Sustainable Supply Chain Management. Annals of Operations Research . https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05777-6
Rezvani, S.M., Falcão, M.J., Komljenovic, D. and de Almeida, N.M. (2023) A Systematic Literature Review on Urban Resilience Enabled with Asset and Disaster Risk Management Approaches and GIS-Based Decision Support Tools. Applied Sciences , 13, Article 2223. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13042223
Leal Filho, W., Abeldaño Zuñiga, R.A., Sierra, J., Dinis, M.A.P., Corazza, L., Nagy, G.J., et al. (2024) An Assessment of Priorities in Handling Climate Change Impacts on Infrastructures. Scientific Reports , 14, Article No. 14147. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-64606-3
Wardhana, D.H.A. and Prawira, M.R. (2024) The Analysis of Indonesia’s CLIMATE Change Policies in Response to the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report/AR6 Group 1 (2021-2023). Proirofonic , 1, 42-53.
Weber, T., Bowyer, P., Rechid, D., Pfeifer, S., Raffaele, F., Remedio, A.R., et al. (2020) Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa under Two Different Emission Scenarios. Earth ’ s Future , 8, e2019EF001473. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001473
Gössling, S., Neger, C., Steiger, R. and Bell, R. (2023) Weather, Climate Change, and Transport: A Review. Natural Hazards , 118, 1341-1360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06054-2
George, O.K. and Alice, M.K. (2016) Impact of Urbanization on the Morphology of Motoine/Ngong River Channel, Nairobi River Basin, Kenya. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning , 9, 36-46. https://doi.org/10.5897/jgrp2015.0528
Ogai, E.M. and Board, K.R. (2020) 27th IEK CONFERENCE Post-COVID Economic Recovery: Rethinking Kenya’s Road Infrastructure Development Model Theme: Engineering A Post Covid Future Sub-Theme: Big Four Agenda and Vision 2030. https://iekenya.org/sites/default/files/iek-documents/2025-02/Post-COVID%20Economic%20recovery%20%20Rethinking%20Kenya%E2%80%99s%20road%20infrastructure%20development.pdf
Mushori, J., M. Rambo, C. and M. Wafula, C. (2020) Moderating Influence of Process Monitoring on the Relationship between Contractors Capacity Evaluation in Tender Award and Performance of Road Construction Infrastructural Projects. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering , 10. https://doi.org/10.37421/jcde.2020.10.341
Opiyo, R.O., Muketha, S.M., Omollo, W.O. and Mwaniki, D. (2019) Responsive Infrastructure and Service Provision Initiatives Framing Smart Environment Attainment in Nairobi. In: Vinod Kumar, T., Ed., Smart Environment for Smart Cities , Springer, 407-433. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-6822-6_11
Chen, W., Wang, W., Huang, G., Wang, Z., Lai, C. and Yang, Z. (2021) The Capacity of Grey Infrastructure in Urban Flood Management: A Comprehensive Analysis of Grey Infrastructure and the Green-Grey Approach. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction , 54, Article ID: 102045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102045
Casal-Campos, A., Fu, G., Butler, D. and Moore, A. (2015) An Integrated Environmental Assessment of Green and Gray Infrastructure Strategies for Robust Decision Making. Environmental Science & Technology , 49, 8307-8314. https://doi.org/10.1021/es506144f
Štrbac, S., Kašanin-Grubin, M., Pezo, L., Stojić, N., Lončar, B., Ćurčić, L., et al. (2023) Green Infrastructure Designed through Nature-Based Solutions for Sustainable Urban Development. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 20, Article 1102. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20021102
Minsker, B., Baldwin, L., Crittenden, J., Kabbes, K., Karamouz, M., Lansey, K., et al. (2015) Progress and Recommendations for Advancing Performance-Based Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Design. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management , 141, A4015006. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000521
Phillips, G. (2022) Mobilising Climate Finance for Adaptation through the Adaptation Benefits Mechanism. In: Michaelowa, A. and Sacherer, A.K., Eds., Handbook of International Climate Finance , Edward Elgar Publishing, 420-444.
Hullurappa, M. and Kommineni, M. (2024) Integrating Blue-Green Infrastructure into Urban Development: A Data-Driven Approach Using AI-Enhanced ETL Systems. In: Gupta, S., Maurya, N., Malik, F.A. and Razzak Janjua, L., Eds., Integrating Blue-Green Infrastructure into Urban Development , IGI Global, 373-396. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-8069-7.ch017
Nyawo, J.C. (2024) An Exploration of Infrastructural Challenges Faced by Small-Holder Farmers in eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. Mbali International Conference Proceedings 2024 , 644-673. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Thabiso_Msomi3/publication/387485456_Analysing_the_influence_of_technology_transfer_on_SMEs'_competitiveness_The_mediating_effect_of_innovation_in_SMEs/links/676fd440e74ca64e1f357af0/Analysing-the-influence-of-technology-transfer-on-SMEs-competitiveness-The-mediating-effect-of-innovation-in-SMEs.pdf#page=645
Lasage, R., Veldkamp, T.I.E., de Moel, H., Van, T.C., Phi, H.L., Vellinga, P., et al. (2014) Assessment of the Effectiveness of Flood Adaptation Strategies for HCMC. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences , 14, 1441-1457. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1441-2014
Bloomfield, R.E., Popov, P., Salako, K., Stankovic, V. and Wright, D. (2017) Preliminary Interdependency Analysis: An Approach to Support Critical-Infrastructure Risk-assessment. Reliability Engineering & System Safety , 167, 198-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.030
Richter, R. (2015) Resilience and Critical Infrastructure. The Science for Population Protection , 7, 71-76.
Kapetas, L. and Fenner, R. (2020) Integrating Blue-Green and Grey Infrastructure through an Adaptation Pathways Approach to Surface Water Flooding. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A : Mathematical , Physical and Engineering Sciences , 378, Article ID: 20190204. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0204
Morris, R.L., Konlechner, T.M., Ghisalberti, M. and Swearer, S.E. (2018) From Grey to Green: Efficacy of Eco-Engineering Solutions for Nature‐based Coastal Defence. Global Change Biology , 24, 1827-1842. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14063
Kawabata, Y., Takimoto, K., Nishida, T., Koshikawa, Y. and Aizawa, A. (2024) Integration of Green and Gray Infrastructures—Conceptualization from the Perspective of Gray Engineers. Structural Engineering International , 35, 125-133. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168664.2024.2398791
Burnside, W.R., Pulver, S., Fiorella, K.J., Avolio, M.L., Alexander, S.M. and Holling, C.S. (1973) Foundations of Socio-Environmental Research: Legacy Readings with Commentaries. Cambridge University Press, 460-482.
Hickford, A.J., Blainey, S.P., Ortega Hortelano, A. and Pant, R. (2018) Resilience Engineering: Theory and Practice in Interdependent Infrastructure Systems. Environment Systems and Decisions , 38, 278-291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-018-9707-4
Francis, R. and Bekera, B. (2014) A Metric and Frameworks for Resilience Analysis of Engineered and Infrastructure Systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety , 121, 90-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.004
Luo, X., Liu, P., Cheng, Q., Liu, W., Zhou, C., Zheng, Y., et al. (2024) Reinforcing Resilience for Integrated Design of Green and Grey Infrastructure with Real-Time Control Rules by Considering System Failures. Journal of Hydrology , 638, Article ID: 131498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131498
Chapman, C.M. (2023) Green and Grey Drainage Infrastructure: Costs and Benefits of Reducing Surface Water Flood Risk. Master’s Thesis, University of Oxford.
Mulligan, J., Bukachi, V., Clause, J.C., Jewell, R., Kirimi, F. and Odbert, C. (2020) Hybrid Infrastructures, Hybrid Governance: New Evidence from Nairobi (Kenya) on Green-Blue-Grey Infrastructure in Informal Settlements. Anthropocene , 29, Article ID: 100227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2019.100227
Liu, J., Cao, Z., Li, X., Wang, W., Hou, J., Li, D., et al. (2022) Modelling Urban Flooding Integrated with Flow and Sediment Transport in Drainage Networks. Science of the Total Environment , 850, Article ID: 158027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158027
Irankunda, G., Zhang, W., Fernand, M. and Zhang, J. (2024) Assessing the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Facilities toward a Holistic and Theoretical Approach: A Multi-Scenario Evidence and Case Study. Sustainability , 16, Article 8735. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16208735
Joyce, J., Chang, N., Harji, R. and Ruppert, T. (2018) Coupling Infrastructure Resilience and Flood Risk Assessment via Copulas Analyses for a Coastal Green-Grey-Blue Drainage System under Extreme Weather Events. Environmental Modelling & Software , 100, 82-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.008
Dong, X., Guo, H. and Zeng, S. (2017) Enhancing Future Resilience in Urban Drainage System: Green versus Grey Infrastructure. Water Research , 124, 280-289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2017.07.038
Staddon, C., Ward, S., De Vito, L., Zuniga-Teran, A., Gerlak, A.K., Schoeman, Y., et al. (2018) Contributions of Green Infrastructure to Enhancing Urban Resilience. Environment Systems and Decisions , 38, 330-338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-018-9702-9