Modeling the Conversion of Forest Land to Other Types of Occupation Due to Urban Growth in Five Forest Towns in the Congo Basin

Abstract

The conversion of forest land to other types of land cover is one of the major issues in the global fight against climate change. Understanding the direct and indirect factors of these conversions from local studies in the tropics is essential to project the future impact of human activities on the preservation of tropical forests in general and the forests of the Republic of Congo in particular. This study, conducted in five localities with different socioeconomic contexts in the Republic of Congo, aims to analyze the variability of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation linked to urbanization in the Congo Basin. Using a series of land cover maps from the years 1986, 2003 and 2019 for the cities of Ouesso, Pokola, Ngombe, Impfondo and Dongou, as well as field data and socio-economic information collected from local and central administrations, a unique model has been developed to understand the explanatory patterns of forest loss. Deforestation around urban centers is mainly due to urban agriculture due to population growth, as well as the spatial expansion of cities, which have a major impact on the stability and integrity of forests. Shifting agriculture is the main direct cause of deforestation and forest degradation, representing 48% of the total sample, followed by the collection of wood fuel (22%), the collection of construction wood (19%), illegal logging (6%) and urban expansion (5%). Forecasts indicate that forest loss around major cities will increase by 487, 20 ha to 5266, 73 ha by 2050 compared to the base year of 2019. This study highlights the need for a new system of land management and poverty alleviation of local populations to ensure the stability of the Congo Basin tropical forests around large and small African cities.