The article describes a possible impact of demographic explosion during the Neolith on local ecosystems and on the global climate as well as the role of this explosion in aggravating the course of 4.2 ka cooling event. A possible role of human activity in changing the pattern of mid-latitudes westerlies, monsoons and Walker circulation throughout the Holocene is analyzed. It is explained why during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) monsoons could have been weaker than today, not stronger, as it is commonly stated. It is described how during the HCO the humid Tibetan Plateau could have repelled the Indian monsoon to the west and the East Asian monsoon to the north. The explanation for weaker El Ni ñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during HCO is proposed.
KeywordsHolocene Climatic OptimumWalker CirculationMonsoonGreen Sahara Period4.2 ka Event
Collier, J.L., Ed. (1990) Historical Setting, Chad: A Country Study, Library of Congress Country Studies. 2nd Edition, Library of Congress, Washington DC, 13.
Oliver, R. (1999) The African Experience: From Olduvai Gorge to the 21st Century (Series: History of Civilization). Revised Edition, Phoenix Press, London, 39.
Sutton, J.E.G. (1974) The Aquatic Civilization of Middle Africa. Journal of African History, 15, 527-546. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0021853700013864
Drysdale, R., Zanchetta, G., Hellstrom, J., Maas, R., Fallick, A., Pickett, M. and Piccini, L. (2006) Late Holocene Drought Responsible for the Collapse of Old World Civilizations Is Recorded in an Italian Cave Flowstone. Geology, 34, 101-104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G22103.1
Staubwasser, M., Sirocko, F., Grootes, P.M. and Segl, M. (2003) Climate Change at the 4.2 ka BP Termination of the Indus Valley Civilization and Holocene South Asian Monsoon Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002gl016822
Weiss, H., Courty, M.-A., Wetterstrom, W., Guichard, F., Senior, L., Meadow, R. and Curnow, A. (1993) The Genesis and Collapse of Third Millennium North Mesopotamian Civilization. Science, 261, 995-1004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.261.5124.995
Weiss, H. (2000) Beyond the Younger Dryas—Collapse as Adaptation to Abrupt Climatic Change in Ancient West Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. In: Bawden, G. and Reycraft, R., Eds., Confronting Natural Disaster: Engaging the Past to Understand the Future, University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, 75-98.
Bond, G., Showers, W., Cheseby, M., Lotti, R., Almasi, P., Priore, P. and Bonani, G. (1997) A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates. Science, 278, 1257-1266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.278.5341.1257
Debret, M., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Grousset, F., Desmet, M., McManus, J.F., Massei, N. and Trentesaux, A. (2007) The Origin of the 1500-Year Climate Cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic Records. Climate of the Past Discussions, 3, 679-692. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-3-679-2007
Michalek, M.J. (2013) Examining the Progression and Termination of Lake Agassiz (PDF) Michigan State University. https://msu.edu/~michal76/research/407_Geomorphology_Lake%20Agassiz2.pdf
Bjorck, S., Rundgren, M., Ingolfsson, O. and Vunder, S. (1997) The Preboreal Oscillation around the Nordic Seas: Terrestrial and Lacustrine Responses. Journal of Quaternary Science, 12, 455-466. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199711/12)12:6 3.0.CO;2-S
Roland, T.P., Caseldine, C.J., Charman, D.J., Turney, C.S.M. and Amesbury, M.J. (2014) Was There a “4.2 ka Event” in Great Britain and Ireland? Evidence from the Peatland Record. Quaternary Science Reviews, 83, 11-27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.024
Perry, C.A. and Hsu, K.J. (2000) Geophysical, Archaeological, and Historical Evidence Support a Solar-Output Model for Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 97, 12433-12438. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.230423297
Viau, A.E., Gajewski, K., Sawada, M.C. and Fines, P. (2006) Millennial-Scale Temperature Variations in North America during the Holocene. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D09102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006031
Blytt, A. (1876) Essay on the Immigration of the Norwegian Flora during the Alternating Rainy and Dry Period, Alb. Cammermayer, Christiana (Oslo).
Sernander, R. (1908) On the Evidence of Post-Glacial Changes of Climate Furnished by the Peat Mosses of Northern Europe. Geologiska Foreningensi Stockholm Forhandlingar, 31, 423-448. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/11035890909443099
Andreev, A.A., Siegert, C., Klimanov, V.A., Derevyagin, A.Y., Shilova, G.N. and Melles, M. (2002) Late Pleistocene and Holocene Vegetation and Climate on the Taymyr Lowland, Northern Siberia. Quaternary Research, 57, 138-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.2001.2302
Eronen, M. (2013) The Retreat of Pine Forest in Finnish Lapland since the Holocene Climatic Optimum: A General Discussion with Radiocarbon Evidence from Subfossil Pines. Fennia: International Journal of Geography, 157, 93-114.
MacDonald, G.M., Velichko, A.A., Kremenetski, C.V., Borisova, O.K., Goleva, A.A., Andreev, A.A., Aravena, R., et al. (2000) Holocene Treeline History and Climate Change across Northern Eurasia. Quaternary Research, 53, 302-311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.1999.2123
Tarasov, P.E., Bezrukova, E.V. and Krivonogov, S.K. (2009) Late Glacial and Holocene Changes in Vegetation Cover and Climate in Southern Siberia Derived from a 15 kyr Long Pollen Record from Lake Kotokel. Climate of the Past, 5, 285-295. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-285-2009
Leblanc, M., Favreau, G., Maley, J., Nazoumou, Y., Leduc, C., Stagnitti, F., Lemoalle, J., et al. (2006) Reconstruction of Megalake Chad Using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission Data. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 239, 16-27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.01.003
Gasse, F. (2000) Hydrological Changes in the African Tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 189-211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00061-X
Tierney, J.E., Russell, J.M., Damsté, J.S.S., Huang, Y. and Verschuren, D. (2011) Late Quaternary Behavior of the East African Monsoon and the Importance of the Congo Air Boundary. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 798-807. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.01.017
El-Moslimany, A.P. (1986) Ecology and Late-Quaternary history Of the Kurdo-Zagrosian oak Forest near Lake Zeribar, Western Iran. Vegetatio, 68, 55-63.
Liphschitz, N. and Biger, G. (1990) Ancient Dominance of the Quercus calliprinos-Pistacia palaestina Association in Mediterranean Israel. Journal of Vegetation Science, 1, 67-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3236054
Naveh, Z. and Dan, J. (1973) The Human Degradation of Mediterranean Landscapes in Israel. In: di Castri, F. and Mooney, H.A., Eds., Mediterranean Type Ecosystems, Volume 7 of the Series Ecological Studies, Springer, Berlin, 373-390. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-65520-3_22
Niklewski, J. and Van Zeist, W. (1970) A Late Quaternary Pollen Diagram from Northwestern Syria. Acta Botanica Neerlandica, 19, 737-754. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1438-8677.1970.tb00176.x
Wick, L. (2003) Evidence of Lateglacial and Holocene Climatic Change and Human Impact in Eastern Anatolia: High-Resolution Pollen, Charcoal, Isotopic and Geochemical Records from the Laminated Sediments of Lake Van, Turkey. The Holocene, 13, 665-675. http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/0959683603hl653rp
Wright Jr., H.E., McAndrews, J.H. and van Zeist, W. (1967) Modern Pollen Rain in Western Iran, and Its Relation to Plant Geography and Quaternary Vegetational History. Journal of Ecology, 55, 415-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2257886
Yasuda, Y., Kitagawa, H. and Nakagawa, T. (2000) The Earliest Record of Major Anthropogenic Deforestation in the Ghab Valley, Northwest Syria: A Palynological Study. Quaternary International, 73-74, 127-136. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(00)00069-0
Finney, B.P., Scholz, C.A., Johnson, T.C. and Trumbore, S. (1996) Late Quaternary Lake-Level Changes of Lake Malawi. In: Johnson, T.C. and Odada, E.O., Eds., The Limnology, Climatology and Paleoclimatology of the East African Lakes, Gordon and Breach Publishing, Amsterdam, 495-508.
Johnson, T.C. (1996) Sedimentary Processes and Signals of Past Climatic Change in the Large Lakes of the East African Rift Valley. In: Johnson, T.C. and Odada, E.O., Eds., The Limnology, Climatology and Paleoclimatology of the East African Lakes, Gordon and Breach Publishing, Amsterdam, 367-412.
Burns, S.J., Fleitmann, D., Matter, A., Neff, U. and Mangini, A. (2001) Speleothem Evidence from Oman for Continental Pluvial Events during Interglacial Periods. Geology, 29, 623-626. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029 2.0.CO;2
Kudrass, H.-R., Hofmann, A., Doose, H., Emeis, K.-C. and Erlenkeuser, H. (2001) Modulation and Amplification of Climatic Changes in the Northern Hemisphere by the Indian Summer Monsoon during the Past 80 k.y. Geology, 29, 63-66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029 2.0.CO;2
Junges, W. (1957) Die jahrliche Niederschlagsverteilung als entscheidender Faktorbei der photoperiodischen Anpassung der Pflanzen. Gartenbauwissenschaft, 22, 527-540.
Djamali, M., Akhani, H., Andrieu-Ponel, V., et al. (2010) Indian Summer Monsoon Variations Could Have Affected the Early-Holocene Woodland Expansion in the Near East. The Holocene, 20, 813-820. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683610362813
Pourreza, M., Shaw, J.D. and Zangeneh, H. (2008) Sustainability of Wild Pistachio (Pistacia atlantica Desf.) in Zagros Forests, Iran. Forest Ecology and Management, 255, 3667-3671. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.01.057
Cheddadi, R. and Rossignol-Strick, M. (1995) Eastern Mediterranean Quaternary Paleoclimates from Pollen and Isotope Records of Marine Cores in the Nile Cone Area. Paleoceanography, 10, 291-300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94PA02672
Stanley, J.D., Krom, M.D., Cliff, R.A. and Woodward, J.C. (2003) Short Contribution: Nile Flow Failure at the End of the Old Kingdom, Egypt: Strontium Isotopic and Petrologic Evidence. Geoarchaeology, 18, 395-402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gea.10065
An, C.B., Feng, Z.D. and Barton, L. (2006) Dry or Humid? Mid-Holocene Humidity Changes in Arid and Semi-Arid China. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 351-361. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.03.013
Jiang, W., Guo, Z., Sun, X., Wu, H., Chu, G., Yuan, B., Guiot, J., et al. (2006) Reconstruction of Climate and Vegetation Changes of Lake Bayanchagan (Inner Mongolia): Holocene variability of the East Asian Monsoon. Quaternary Research, 65, 411-420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2005.10.007
Long, H., Lai, Z., Wang, N. and Li, Y. (2010) Holocene Climate Variations from Zhuyeze Terminal Lake Records in East Asian Monsoon Margin in Arid Northern China. Quaternary Research, 74, 46-56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2010.03.009
Maher, B.A. (2008) Holocene Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon from Chinese Cave Records: A Re-Assessment. The Holocene, 18, 861-866. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683608095569
Peng, Y., Xiao, J., Nakamura, T., Liu, B. and Inouchi, Y. (2005) Holocene East Asian Monsoonal Precipitation Pattern Revealed by Grain-Size Distribution of Core Sediments of Daihai Lake in Inner Mongolia of North-Central China. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 233, 467-479. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.02.022
Xiao, J., Xu, Q., Nakamura, T., Yang, X., Liang, W. and Inouchi, Y. (2004) Holocene Vegetation Variation in the Daihai Lake Region of North-Central China: A Direct Indication of the Asian Monsoon Climatic History. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 1669-1679. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.01.005
Kwang-Chih, C. (2008) China on the Eve of the Historical Period. Cambridge Histories Online, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic787469.files/camb%20hist%20china%2054-73.pdf
Huang, C.C., Pang, J., Zha, X., Su, H. and Jia, Y. (2011) Extraordinary Floods Related to the Climatic Event at 4200 a BP on the Qishuihe River, Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, China. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 460-468. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.12.007
Wenxiang, W. and Tungsheng, L. (2004) Possible Role of the “Holocene Event 3” on the Collapse of Neolithic Cultures around the Central Plain of China. Quaternary International. 117, 153-166. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(03)00125-3
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A. and Kaufman, A. (1998) Middle to Late Holocene (6,500 yr. Period) Paleoclimate in the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Stable Isotopic Composition of Speleothems from Soreq Cave, Israel. In: Issar, A.S. and Brown, N., Eds., Water, Environment and Society in Times of Climatic Change, Volume 31 of the Series Water Science and Technology Library, Springer, Berlin, 203-214.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S.J., Mangini, A., Mudelsee, M., Kramers, J., Villa, I., Matter, A., et al. (2007) Holocene ITCZ and Indian Monsoon Dynamics Recorded in Stalagmites from Oman and Yemen (Socotra). Quaternary Science Reviews, 26, 170-188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.04.012
Arz, H.W., Lamy, F. and Patzold, J. (2006) A Pronounced Dry Event Recorded around 4.2 ka in Brine Sediments from the Northern Red Sea. Quaternary Research, 66, 432-441. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2006.05.006
Cullen, H.M., Hemming, S., Hemming, G., Brown, F.H., Guilderson, T. and Sirocko, F. (2000) Climate Change and the Collapse of the Akkadian Empire: Evidence from the Deep Sea. Geology, 28, 379-382. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28 2.0.CO;2
Gupta, A.K., Anderson, D.M. and Overpeck, J.T. (2003) Abrupt Changes in the Asian Southwest Monsoon during the Holocene and Their Links to the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature, 421, 354-357. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01340
Staubwasser, M. and Weiss, H. (2006) Holocene Climate and Cultural Evolution in Late Prehistoric-Early Historic West Asia. Quaternary Research, 66, 372-387. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2006.09.001
Hassan, F.A. and Sengel, R.A. (1973) On Mechanisms of Population Growth during the Neolithic. Current Anthropology, 14, 535-542. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/201380
Chase-Dunn, C., Alvarez, A. and Pasciuti, D. (2005) Power and Size: Urbanization and Empire Formation in World-Systems since the Bronze Age. In: Chase-Dunn, C. and Anderson, E., Eds., The Historical Evolution of World-Systems, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 92-112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781403980526_5
Enzel, Y., Bookman, R., Sharon, D., Gvirtzman, H., Dayan, U., Ziv, B. and Stein, M. (2003) Late Holocene Climates of the Near East Deduced from Dead Sea Level Variations and Modern Regional Winter Rainfall. Quaternary Research, 60, 263-273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2003.07.011
Hamzeh, M.A., Gharaie, M.H.M., Lahijani, H.A.K., Djamali, M., Harami, R.M. and Beni, A.N. (2016) Holocene Hydrological Changes in SE Iran, A Key Region between Indian Summer Monsoon and Mediterranean Winter Precipitation Zones, as Revealed from a Lacustrine Sequence from Lake Hamoun. Quaternary International, 408, 25-39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.11.011
Keding, B. (2000) New Data on the Holocene Occupation of the Wadi Howar Region (Eastern Sahara/Sudan). Studies in African Archaeology, 7, 89-104.
Jiang, T., Zhang, Q., Blender, R. and Fraedrich, K. (2005) Yangtze Delta Floods and Droughts of the Last Millennium: Abrupt Changes and Long Term Memory. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 82, 131-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0125-4
Wang, H., Yang, Z., Saito, Y., Liu, J.P. and Sun, X. (2006) Interannual and Seasonal Variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) Water Discharge over the Past 50 Years: Connections to Impacts from ENSO Events and Dams. Global and Planetary Change, 50, 212-225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.01.005
Wang, Y. and Zhou, L. (2005) Observed Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events in China during 1961-2001 and the Associated Changes in Large-Scale Circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, Article ID: L09707. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023769
Zhang, S.Q. and Li, S.Q. (1994) The Influence of Fluctuation of Global Temperature on Precipitation in China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 5, 333-339. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
Guinness World Records. Largest Empire by Percentage of World Population. http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-empire-by-percentage-of-world-population/
An, Z., Porter, S.C., Kutzbach, J.E., Xihao, W., Suming, W., Xiaodong, L., Weijian, Z., et al. (2000) Asynchronous Holocene Optimum of the East Asian Monsoon. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 743-762. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00031-1
Zhang, Z., Cazelles, B., Tian, H., Stige, L.C., Brauning, A. and Stenseth, N.C. (2009) Periodic Temperature-Associated Drought/Flood Drives Locust Plagues in China. Proceedings of Royal Society B, 276, 823-831. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.1284
Zech, R., Abramowski, U., Glaser, B., Sosin, P., Kubik, P. W. and Zech, W. (2005) Late Quaternary Glacial and Climate History of the Pamir Mountains Derived from Cosmogenic 10 Be exposure Ages. Quaternary Research, 64, 212-220. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2005.06.002
Benn, D.I. and Owen, L.A. (1998) The Role of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the Mid-Latitude Westerlies in Himalayan Glaciation: Review and Speculative Discussion. Journal of the Geological Society, 155, 353-363. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/gsjgs.155.2.0353
Feng, Z., An, C.B. and Wang, H.B. (2006) Holocene Climatic and Environmental Changes in the Arid and Semi-Arid Areas of China: A Review. The Holocene, 16, 119-130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/0959683606hl912xx
Jin, Z.D., Wu, Y., Zhang, X. and Wang, S. (2005) Role of Late Glacial to Mid-Holocene Climate in Catchment Weathering in the Central Tibetan Plateau. Quaternary Research, 63, 161-170. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2004.09.012
Phadtare, N.R. (2000) Sharp Decrease in Summer Monsoon Strength 4000-3500 calyr BP in the Central Higher Himalaya of India Based on Pollen Evidence from Alpine Peat. Quaternary Research, 53, 122-129. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.1999.2108
Yanhong, W., Lücke, A., Zhangdong, J., Sumin, W., Schleser, G.H., Battarbee, R.W. and Weilan, X. (2006) Holocene Climate Development on the Central Tibetan Plateau: A Sedimentary Record from Cuoe Lake. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 234, 328-340. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.09.017
Liu, X. and Chen, B. (2000) Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 1729-1742. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20:14 3.0.CO;2-Y
Liu, K.B., Yao, Z. and Thompson, L.G. (1998) A Pollen Record of Holocene Climatic Changes from the Dunde Ice Cap, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Geology, 26, 135-138. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1998)026 2.3.CO;2
Miehe, G., Kaiser, K., Co, S., Xinquan, Z. and Jianquan, L. (2008) Geo-Ecological Transect Studies in Northeast Tibet (Qinghai, China) Reveal Human-Made Mid-Holocene Environmental Changes in the Upper Yellow River Catchment Changing Forest to Grassland. Erdkunde, 62, 187-199. http://dx.doi.org/10.3112/erdkunde.2008.03.01
Schlütz, F. and Lehmkuhl, F. (2009) Holocene Climatic Change and the Nomadic Anthropocene in Eastern Tibet: Palynological and Geomorphological Results from the Nianbaoyeze Mountains. Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 1449-1471. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.01.009