Multiple Scenarios Simulation of Global Ecological Footprint Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition Method

Abstract

A nonlinear dynamic simulative model has been discussed with variable cycles of entire world per capita ecological footprint taken from 1961 to 2003. The model was further classified and decomposed and extracted by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. To deal with the problems proposed in the Living Planet Report 2006, three ecological footprint scenarios are presented. Simulative numerical values of the three global per capita (GPC) ecological footprint scenarios are also analyzed based on the simulative model. The results show that: 1) The clear varying cycle of global per capita EF growth is 4.6 years, 9.5 years, 19.5 years and 41 years over the last 42 years; 2) According to the business-as-usual scenario, if the global per capita increases positively with the constant growth, it is expected that GPC EF would be 3.262 gha in 2050. Assuming global per capita biocapacity (BC) to be 1.236 gha, global per capita ecological deficit (ED) would increase from 0.4 gha in 2003 to 2.026 gha in 2050; 3) The slow-shift scenario shows global per capita EF would decrease from 2.23 gha in 2003 to 1.619 gha in 2080 and 1.406 gha in 2100, if the negative annual change rate of it is 0.447 percent. Global per capita ED would decrease from 0.4 gha in 2003 to 0.222 gha in 2080 and 0.038 gha in 2100, if global per capita BC is 1.397 gha; 4) The rapid-reduction scenario depicts global per capita EF would decrease to 1.414 gha in 2050, if the negative annual change rate is 0.842% from 2003 to 2050. Assuming global per capita BC to be 1.461 gha, global per capita ecological reserve (ER) would be 0.047 gha, and overshoot would be eliminated in 2050. Global per capita EF would decrease to 1.054 gha in 2100, if the negative annual change rate is 0.438% from 2050 to 2100. Assuming global per capita BC to be 1.474 gha, GPC ER would be 0.420 gha. Then, wild species of the planet will be allocated nearly 28.5% of the planet’s biological productivity, which coincides with the results of Living Planet Report 2006.