Climate Change Assessment Using Negative Extreme Deviations of Surface Temperature Field (Case Study: Tbilisi)

Abstract

To conduct regional climate change assessment for the selected location (Tbilisi) more than century period hydrometeorological observation data of day-night minimal temperature is used. In the presented paper only temperature negative values of whole winter season are used. The temperature field change is characterized by the following four parameters: the minimal temperature sum (winter-day temperature is less than zero) of winter frost days; frost day number; season minimal temperature and the occurrence date of season minimal temperature. The modular structure of the above listed parameters has been studied and the mathematical expressions for temporal changes of those parameters have been obtained considering dynamical norms and cyclical changes. The intensity of this change in terms of global warming has been determined. One of the main parameters determining climate change is the variations of temperature field. Despite the fact that this parameter has been modified in the large range due to numerous impacts, they kept stable and provide sustainable equilibrium of the Earth’s energy potential during long-term (several decades) period. This was the reason why the Earth climate remained unchained. As it is known, the anthropogenic impact on the environment has breached the sustainable balance of the Earth energy potential, the potential has been gradually grown almost for more than a century and is known by the name of global warming. The above-mentioned process has already created the greatest threat to the existence of Earth’s biosphere and if it still continues the catastrophic results eventually have to be expected. This led that the problem solving has been set as an urgent task. The numerous fundamental studies for all regions of the world have been carried out to assess the intensity of this process.