This study aims to evaluate the impact of extreme rainfall events on landslides under current and past climate scenarios. Rainfall-triggered landslides are analyzed by rainfall estimates, derived using statistics of events. It is established that recent climate changes, mainly temperature and rainfall patterns have significantly increased the rainfall-induced landslide hazards in the Rangamati district, Bangladesh. It is also observed that the temperature and rainfall of Rangamati had increased gradually during the last 40 years (1981-2021). On 13 June 2017, a series of landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains (300 mm/24 h) occurred and killed more than 112 people in the Rangamati hill district, Bangladesh. The highest annual decade rainfall is 3816 mm, recorded in 2010-21. A relationship between causalities and the number of events has also been established. The analysis shows that both antecedent and single-day major rainfall patterns can influence sliding events. It is established that monsoonal rainfall (June-September) can significantly influence catastrophic landslide hazard events. Finally, two rainfall threshold lines for the researched area are constructed based on antecedent and single-day major rainfall occurrences, as well as the number of fatalities caused by landslides. Total rainfall of 100 mm (16.66 mm/day) during six days appears to define the minimum rainfall that has led to shallow landslides/slope failures, while 210 mm (35 mm/day) within six days appears to define the lowest rainfall that could be a cause of catastrophic landslide in Rangamati district.
KeywordsClimate ChangeAntecedent RainfallRainfall ThresholdCatastrophic and Landslide
Ali, A. (1999) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Bangladesh. Climate Research, 12, 109-116. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr012109
Kabir, H. and Golder, J. (2017) Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Crop Agriculture in the Southwest Region of Bangladesh. Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 5, Article ID: 1000196.
Chakravorti, B.K. (2015) Earthquake Forecasting in Bangladesh and Its Surrounding Regions. European Scientific Journal, 11, 238-244.
Karim, M.F. and Mimura, N. (2008) Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Cyclonic Storm Surge Floods in Bangladesh. Global Environmental Change, 18, 490-500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.002
Green, J. (2009) Coastlines around the World. The Rosen Publishing Group, New York.
Alam, E. and Dominey-Howes, D. (2014) An Analysis of the AD1762 Earthquake and Tsunami in SE Bangladesh. Natural Hazards, 70, 903-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0841-5
Alam, E.D. and Dominey-Howes, D. (2016) A Catalog of Earthquakes between 810BC and 2012 for the Bay of Bengal. Natural Hazards, 81, 2031-2102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2174-7
Steckler, M.S., Mondal, D.R., Akhter, S.H., Seeber, L., Feng, L.J., Gale, J., Hill, E.M. and Howe, M. (2016) Locked and Loading Megathrust Linked to Active Subduction Beneath the Indo-Burman Ranges. Nature Geoscience, 9, 615-618. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2760
Coumou, D. and Rahmstorf, S. (2012) A Decade of Weather Extremes. Nature Climate Change, 2, 491-496. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1452
Masum, J.H. (2019) Climatic Hazards in Bangladesh: A Literature Review. Coastal Development Partnership (CDP), Bangladesh.
Rossi, M., Kirschbaum, D., Valigi, D., Mondini, A.C. and Guzzetti, F. (2017) Comparison of Satellite Rainfall Estimates and Rain Gauge Measurements in Italy, and Impact on Landslide Modeling. Climate, 5, Article 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040090
Corominas, J. (2000) Landslides and Climate. Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Landslides, Cardiff, 26-30 June 2000, 1-33.
Hong, M., Kim, J. and Jeong, S. (2018) Rainfall Intensity-Duration Thresholds for Landslide Prediction in South Korea by Considering the Effects of Antecedent Rainfall. Landslides, 15, 523-534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0892-x
Evans, S.G., Guthrie, R.H., Roberts, N.J. and Bishop, N.F. (2007) The Disastrous 17 February 2006 Rockslide Debris Avalanche on Leyte Island, Philippines: A Catastrophic Landslide in Tropical Mountain Terrain. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 7, 89-101. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-89-2007
Crozier, M.J. (1999) Prediction of Rainfall-Triggered Landslides: A Test of the Antecedent Water Status Model. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 24, 825-833. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199908)24:9 3.0.CO;2-M
Reichenbach, P., De Vita, P., Bathurst, J.C., Borga, M., Crozier, G.M.T., Glade, F., Guzzetti, A. and Hansen, J.W. (1998) Rainfall-Triggered Landslides: A Reference List. Environmental Geology, 35, 219-233. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002540050308
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M. and Stark, C.P. (2007) Rainfall Thresholds for Initiating Landslides in Central and Southern EUROPE. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 98, 239-267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7
Hossain, A.T.M.S. and Toll, D.G. (2013) Climatic Scenario & Suction Controlled Rainfall Induced Landslide Hazards in some unsaturated soils of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Proceeding of the International Conference on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation (13CIA-2013), Dhaka, Bangladesh, 14-16 November 2013, 851-859.
Khatun, M., Hossain, A.T.M.S., Sayem, H.M., Moniruzzaman, M., Ahmed, Z. and Rahaman, K.R. (2022) Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Weighted-Overlay Approach in Rangamati, Bangladesh. Earth Systems and Environment, 7, 223-235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-022-00312-2
Khatun, M., Hossain, A.T.M.S., Sayem, H.M., Patwary, M.A. and Karim, M. (2018) Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of South-Eastern Rangamati District, Bangladesh. 2018 GSA Annual Meeting, Indianapolis, 4-7 November 2018, Abstract No. 316135. https://doi.org/10.1130/abs/2018AM-316135
Hossain, A.T.M.S., Toll, D.G. and Shushupti, O. (2020) Rainfall Induced Landslide Hazards of Bangladesh: Challenges, Issues, and Sustainable Development. International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, 11, 225-230.
Rahardjo, H., Li, X.W., Toll, D.G. and Leong, E.C. (2001) The Effect of Antecedent Rainfall on Slope Stability. In: Toll, D.G., Ed., Unsaturated Soil Concepts and Their Application in Geotechnical Practice, Springer, Dordrecht, 371-399. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9775-3_8
Lumb, P. (1975) Slope Failures in Hong Kong. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology, 8, 31-65. https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.QJEG.1975.008.01.02
Caine, N. (1980) The Rainfall Intensity: Duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 62, 23-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.1980.11879996
Crozier, M.J. (1986) Landslides: Causes, Consequences, and Environment. Croom Helm Australia Pty. Ltd., London.
Tiranti, D. and Rabuffetti, D. (2010) Estimation of Rainfall Thresholds Triggering Shallow Landslides for an Operational Warning System Implementation. Landslides, 7, 471-481. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0198-8
CDMP (Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme) (2012) Landslide Inventory & Landslide Mapping, DEM Preparation, Precipitation Threshold Value & Establishment of Early Warning Device: Rainfall Trigger Landslide Hazard Zonation in Cox’s-Bazar and Teknaf Municipalities for Introducing a Community-Based Early Warning System for Landslide Hazard Management Project. Final Report, Government of Bangladesh (GOB).
Mahadi, A.A. and Hossain A.T.M.S. (2014) Climatic Variations and Rainfall Induced Landslide Hazards of Cox’s Bazar District, Chittagong, Bangladesh. Bangladesh Geoscience Journal, 20, 1-18.
Jakob, M. and Weatherly, H.A. (2003) Hydroclimatic Threshold for Landslide Initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Geomorphology, 54, 137-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00339-2
Santacana, N., Baeza, B., Corominas, J., De Paz, A. and Marturiá, J. (2003) A GIS-Based Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the La Pobla de Lillet Area (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). Natural Hazards, 30, 281-295. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000007169.28860.80
Cepeda, J., Diaz, M.R., Nadim, F., Hoeg, K. and Elverhoi, A. (2009) An Empirical Threshold Model for Rainfall Introduced Landslides: Application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, EI Salvador; Characterization and Risk Management of Rainfall—Introduced Landslide. Ph.D. Thesis, University of OSLO, Norway.
Ahasan, M.N., Chowdhary, M.A. and Quadir, D.A. (2010) Variability and Trends of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Bangladesh. Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, 7, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5612
Nawagamuwa, U.P., Rathnaweera, T.D., Rangana, H.L. and Palihawadana, M.P. (2011) Effects of Global Warming on Landslide Frequencies in Ratnapura District, Sri Lanka. Society for Social Management Systems Internet Journal, 7, 112-117.
Tajudin, N., Ya’acob, N., Ali, D.M. and Adnan, N.A. (2020) Estimation of TRMM Rainfall for Landslide Occurrences Based on Rainfall Threshold Analysis. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE), 10, 3208-3215. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v10i3.pp3208-3215
Salee, R., Chinkulkijniwat, A., Yubonchit, S., Horpibulsuk, S., Wangfaoklang, C. and Soisompong, S. (2022) New Threshold for Landslide Warning in the Southern Part of Thailand Integrates Cumulative Rainfall with Event Rainfall Depth-Duration. Natural Hazards, 113, 125-141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05292-0
Ahasan, M.N., Chowdhury, M.A. and Quadir, D.A. (2008) Few Aspects of the Flood Disaster Caused by Heavy Rainfall over Bangladesh. Proceedings of SAARC Seminar on Application of Weather and Climate Forecasts in the Socio-Economic Development and Disaster Mitigation, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 5-7 August 2008, 79-94.
Rosi, A., Segoni, S., Canavesi, V., Monni, A., Gallucci, A. and Casagli, N. (2021) Definition of 3D Rainfall Thresholds to Increase Operative Landslide Early Warning System Performances. Landslides, 18, 1045-1057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01523-2
Dahal, R.K. and Hasegawa, S. (2008) Representative Rainfall Thresholds for Landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology, 100, 429-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.01.014
Hossain, A.T.M.S., Jafrin, S.J., Khan, P.A., Khatun, M., Imam, H., Sayem, H.M., Dutta, T. and Haque, M.E. (2023) The Hidden Geo-Hazards in the Rohingya Refugee Camps of Ukhiya, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh-A Threat for Sustainable Development. Book Volume of IAEG XIV Congress, Chengdu, 12 October 2022, Abstract No-221-5. https://doi.org/10.1130/abs/2022AM-378674
Turner, A.K. and Schuster, R.L. (1996) Landslides: Investigation and Mitigation. Special Report 247. Transportation Research Board, the National Academies Press, Washington DC.
Jakob, M., Hungr, O., Wieczorek, G.F. and Glade, T. (2005) Climatic Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Debris Flows. In: Jakob, M. and Hungr, O., Eds., Debris-Flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, Springer, Berlin, 325-362.